CAPE FINISHED!!

Discussion in 'Price Checking' started by KevinJai, Dec 16, 2014.

  1. KevinJai
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    I scroll so many things a night, do I hv to SS it all? I played from 04-09 back in the days n I have taken less than 50 SS.
     
  2. KevinJai
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    Go find proof of me hacking this cape first, and before that this cape is legit.
     
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  3. AdamBrone
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    Well you don't have to but it would help prove your item is legit, i'm pretty sure no-one would like to be accused of hacking especially when it is legit. Personally i would have started to SS once the cape reached about 15 att. Furthermore i would have thought about the possible accusations.
     
  4. KevinJai
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    It was nothing to me when the cape was 16. I was only aiming for 20+ atk to be one of the top cape on the server. That's why I name tagged it when it reached 21atk. Each time I put a chaos on this cape, I have blown 1-2b worth of stuff already. Then it causae my chaos madness on the cape lol. But it works everytime , I guess those r called sacrifice ?
     
  5. DemSheddy
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    DemSheddy Well-Known Member

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    May I know where is this 'hate' you speak of? The most that I see is people being suspicious. <.< When I saw that 26att PGC, I honestly could not believe it, akin to many others
    The statistical probabilities for this to occur are insanely low as posted by Coryn.
    Also, your tone in rebutting their suspicions does not help your case either, like how you replayed this to Matt
    I've talked to you in-game before and I trust that you aren't hacking, but a 26att PGC...
    Just my two cents
    EDIT: "It was nothing to me when the cape was 16." Never have I seen someone not content with 16att o.o
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2014
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  6. Marty
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    I have a 16 ATT cape and have yet to improve it. 16 is already pretty darn high.

    I might point out that this isn't a first on Maple in general. I've seen a 28 ATT PGC (aka perfect) on GMS and know the person IRL, and it's 100% legit. It's just, well, statistically speaking, one-of-a-kind.

    One thing though: If a person would actually use hacks to make such a PGC, it'd be a stupid move to go brag about it here. So if this isn't a legit item, you're pretty stupid for posting it here. js
     
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  7. KevinJai
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    Lol , why u think I would post it if I hacked it? Yall just in denial that someone had made this legitly
     
  8. Plenty
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    Plenty Well-Known Member

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    Please get off your high horse. I doubt that many people even care to that certain extent that this exist.
     
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  9. Goofy
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    Well now that everyone knows you're a prick, you're gonna need it. Have fun soloing bosses. Amass dem h8erz br0.

    You should have known that the staff may be concerned as they have dealt with dupers on many occasions.
     
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  10. GiddyUp
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    call me a hater, but on your post and even in game i always hear you talk about how little meso you have which makes it seem to me that you're trying a little too hard to emphasize that to make other people believe that you're legit.

    i'd like to believe that it's legit, but i can't and if it is then im EXTREMELY envious.

    also its known for a fact, when people are in the wrong, they get really defensive and with the rudeness you're displaying in these posts comes off as exactly that.

    anyways i'm giving you the benefit of the doubt and going to say this is legit. Although highly unlikely still possible. congrats on the cape, again extremely jealous of the cape.
     
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  11. KevinJai
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    KevinJai Donator

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    Lol@duper. Idc what u guys think, I used no hack for this , straight up luck, end of story.
     
  12. jmmainvi
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    jmmainvi Donator

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    To put Coryn's statistics in a more "readable" light (imo, because fractions are nicer to read than percentages):

    iirc, this started as a 4 atk pgc. It's been +5'd three times, +4'd once and +3'd once. (KJ is in my guild and we've "talked" about the cape as he was scrolling it. Mostly him alternately mentioning how 16 atk was nothing, and then stating he was never going to finish it, while I egged him on and told him it was crap until it was 0 slots.) No white scrolls were used on this cape.

    chance of getting +5 on a chaos scroll is 6% or just under 1/17 (actually 1/16.666666 repeating). We'll round down after the first decimal for convenience's sake.

    1/16.6 * 1/16.6 * 1/16.6 = 1/4574.296

    The chance of getting a +4 or +5 after that is 12%, or 1/8.33333 repeating. Again, we'll round down.

    1/4574.296 * 1/8.3 = 1/37,966.6568

    The chance of getting a +2, +3, +4, or +5 on the final scroll is 24% or 1/4.166666 repeating. We're counting +2 here, for the cases where the previous scroll was +5 instead of +4, although that's actually going to make our final number significantly lower than it should be. Just being generous. Rounding down, that is:

    1/37,966.6568 * 1/4.1 = 1/155,663.29

    approximately 1 in 150,000 attempts at a cape will come out this well or better. To come out exactly this well, is a much rarer feat - more on the order of 1 : 400,000.

    I'm not going to say that these numbers make the cape legit or illegit. Incredibly Rare =/= impossible. Just posting this up to illustrate exactly HOW rare it is to scroll something like this and that Matt's suspicion is certainly not out of line in such a case.
     
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  13. Marty
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    Edit: @jmmainvi your math is wrong. It's not 6%, since there's a chance of no change occuring, even if the scroll succeeds. So it's (1 / 11 * 0.6) = 5.45%. With WS, it's 9.09%.

    Fun, unrelated fact: Getting a perfect, 33 ATT cape (including the 10% chance of Godly Items and the 16.6% chance to get +5 from that 10%, so 1.66%) happens approximately once every...

    125,287,978 attempts (0.000000798161176604375%)

    With WS, that'd be...

    9,706,720 attempts (0.0000103021413464269134%)


    Someone make that and then you're really suspicious.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2014
  14. Coryn
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    Your math is wrong, you didn't count the chances of failing the scroll which is 0,60^5
     
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  15. jmmainvi
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    Chance of passing scroll = 60%
    when the scroll passes, 10 possible results (+1, +2, +3, +4, +5 and -1, -2, -3, -4, -5)

    60/10 = 6% per option.

    The chance of failing the scroll is just a straight 40% which is accounted for.

    Wasn't aware of marty's statement though, so my math is still wrong. Knowing that they can give +0, it's actually:

    1/18.5 * 1/18.5 * 1/18.5 = 1/6331.625

    1/6331.625 * 1/9.1 = 1/57,617.7875

    1/57617.7875 * 1/4.5 = 1/259,280.042

    1 in ~250,000.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2014
  16. Bruuh
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    There's 11 options, you forgot +0.
     
  17. Coryn
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    I counted from 3 att clean but my math is correct . The chance is just so small it's unreal so I got my own thoughts about it but well i am not in charge to decide
     
  18. 4thJobHokage
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    With superstat items being possible on this server the highest attack that a clean cape can be is 8 (possibly 9, but I don't think so). So statistically speaking a 26 Attack Cape here is the equivalent to a 21~22 Attack Cape on GMS back in '08.

    Anyways, grats on your Cape, that's awesome!
     
  19. Coryn
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    He stated that the cape was not 8 or 9 att .
    It would be the equivalent if there are as much 8-9 att capes on mapleroyals as there were 3-4 att on GMS/EMS/...
     
  20. Marty
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    ^. You'd have to include the chance to get an 8 ATT instead of 3 (9 isn't possible afaik), which is 1.67%.
     

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