Hi guys, as stated in the title I would like your opinion on trying to 30% a big bunch of Nisrocks ranging from 96 to 102 attack. I would do this not for selling them but to equip one for my new BM, I would like to aim for a 125+ atk. Do you guys think is worth it money wise? Keep in mind that: ~ 30% Scrolls for Bow range from 5m to 6m (I would try to buy em for 5.5) ~ A 130atk scrolled Nisrock is around 3.8b ~ A 125atk scrolled Nisrock is around 800m-1b I would really appreciate any help and opinions on the matter, because I'm really uncertain if it's better to buy one already scrolled or test my luck! Thank you
Tried this before, even got extremely lucky and found a petri seller to wholesale me 100wa nisrocks back in the day for 3m ea. Used maybe 200 30% scrolls or something, I lost count. Anyways best I got was 120wa 2 slots, which I event scrolled for 124wa. The rest were shit. Hope you have better luck than me.
You can do some math to figure out the amount of money you need to spend. Previous (wrong) calculations found here: Spoiler You can do some math to figure out the expected return on investment. 30% scrolls have 30% success, 35% fail, and 35% boom if I'm not mistaken. Assuming you start with a 100wa, you need to pass at least 5/7 scrolls to get a 125. so for 7 slots, you need 5 slots to strictly pass, and the remaining 2 slots to at least not boom. The chance of this is 0.3^5 * 0.65^2. = 0.001026 which is a 0.1% chance of getting a bow that has 125 or more attack. You need to scroll 700 bows like this to have a 50% chance of getting a bow with 125+ attack from a 100 (because 0.999^700 = approx 0.5). If scrolls cost 5m each and the bow costs 5m, each attempt is 40m, and 700 attempts would cost you 28 billion mesos. For a 50% chance of getting a satisfactory bow. I would strongly strongly strongly suggest buying one instead of scrolling your own. Unless you feel very lucky. If my math is wrong I'm open to corrections. It feels a bit wrong cos it looks a bit too rare, but I don't see a mistake. Edit: Ok ignore what I said above, I should be using binomial, not whatever I just did. Recalculating. New approach: Calculate chance of 5/7 success given 0/7 scrolls boom Part 1: Chance of 0/7 scrolls boom = 0.65^7 = 0.04902 (wow that was a bit worse than I expected, only 4.9% of bows will even survive) Part 2: Chance of 5 or more successes out of 7 in a binomial distribution with success chance of 30/65 = 0.1684 = 16.84% will have 5 or more successes Final percentage of satisfactory bows is 0.04902 * 0.1684 = 0.008255 = 0.8% chance of a satisfactory bow. (1 - 0.008255)^84 = 0.4984, meaning you need 84 tries to get a 50% chance of a satisfactory bow. Assuming a single try costs 40m for 7 scrolls and 1 bow, 84 attempts would cost 3.36 billion for a 50% chance at getting a satisfactory bow. So the expected amount of mesos you need to spend is 6.72 billion per bow, and that's just the average spend, meaning there's a 50% chance it'll cost more than that amount. But also a 50% chance it'll cost less. The real amount that you spend will usually be a bit less than this, because for example if you succeed 4 out of the first 5 slots, you might decide to stop scrolling and settle for event scrolls like Aqwrd above. But the chance of this is low, so it won't actually reduce the cost by much. My verdict doesn't change, then, I would still suggest to buy instead of scrolling. But the math is more correct now, I think.
Thank you so much for the help! I'm genuinely impressed by your calculations. I tested on this Scroll Simulator made by a forum member (sorry, don't remember who made it, I just saved the link) and the results were so underwhelming I was almost certain I wouldn't do it. You gave me confirmation that it's just not worth it. Thank you so much!
I made a simple simulation in Excel for fun, and the numbers match up with what I have calculated. You can check it out here! (It seems to take a bit to load though) There are 10,000 simulations in the file and it refreshes every minute or so with new simulations. I found it very entertaining to watch. Honestly what this experiment has taught me is that the weapons in the market are underpriced if anything.
I've heard it said that a there are some intangible factors that drive up prices for scrolls beyond its rational value (aka the chance of actually making a valuable equip). Examples: - Scrolling is exciting, gambling is fun, so people pay for that - Ownership: the feeling of "I made this" - Also most people are bad at math There also seem to be downward pressure on the price of already-made equips. - Weapons in this game are (mostly) strictly superior or inferior to one another. If you have a 125 watt nisrock, there's almost no way you'll ever seriously swap back to your old 115 watt bow. It's arguable that it's basically dead weight in your inventory at that point, so you have incentive to sell it even at a loss because it's now nearly useless to you, even though it's as good as new - The server is old, so as people go into the endgame and perfect weapons, the prices of the pretty-good-but-not-perfect weapons like 125 watt nisrocks go down since people are beginning to get the perfect weapons and discard their old pretty-good-but-not-perfect ones. Meanwhile prices of perfect weapons goes up. - And yes also RWTers and the hackers that supply the RWTers, lots of factors here. So that's my guess on why making your own weapon is more expensive.
Yeah I think the thrill of testing your luck definitely makes the scroll prices stay up, and the fact that people that upgrade their equips want to sell the old equips even at a loss makes absolute sense, I never thought about it.
