Chaos scroll related question

Hey,

I was wondering if chaos scroll has the same chance to increase and decrease, and a follow up question, if there is also a difference between the options, for example -
The chances for increasing is 50%, and decreasing is also 50%,
And the chances for adding/decreasing by 1-5 is 20%, or maybe the value changes, like 1 has 30%, 5 has 5% occuring,

Does anyone know how chaos scroll works exactly?
I guess we also need to consider the probability of nothing changes

 

You have 60% to improve an X stat of the item
In those 60% you have 50% to decrease and 50% to increase the said stat
And in that 50% you have the % to increase/decrease by 20% each (1-5) (-1 - -5)
That's in theory anyways.

 

Is there a way to be certain about it with the game code or something, or we just have an educated guess?

 

Is +0 and -0 considered two separate possible outcomes or one? I had always thought there was 11 possible outcomes for passing (-5 ~ 5), never considered it could be (0 ~ 5) * (positive or negative) = 12 possible outcomes

 

Well that changes a stat, no?
The def or smth
If not - then approx. 16.66% each option

 

This server has a uniform distribution when it comes to CS results, that is to say you have equal probabilities for each outcome. Original pre-bb maplestory's chaos scroll was heavily biased towards -1, 0, +1, +2, +3 results. The gMS CS result rates are public knowledge now if you want to google them up.

I remember seeing some old thread discussing this stuff. I think at the time of the server's creation people didn't know the real CS rates. I think by the time the real rates were known, it was way too late to change stuff. Basically it would have been impossible to get the kind of gear that exists in royals (not including godly system for capes).

 

I have written a note calculating every possible outcome 3 years ago, I have never published it since it was just as I decided to take a very long break, I guess I will take this opportunity to share it, if it can or will help anyone I will be more then happy to hear ( there is also a cs vs 30% scroll comparision in there for those who like math like I do, I kept it in but it might be a bit off topic), I also kept my little "experiment to prove theory" in there, have fun

Spoiler: Chaos calculations

warning: what you are about to read is a THEORY speculated based on numbers only, numbers that i use based on the knowledge that i have been given playing maplestory over the years.
if there are other pure facts that i am missing and i am wrong please let me know and i will properly edit what's necessary or even remove this.

hey guys i was bored! and yes i am calculating stuff when im bored that kind of my hubby, hope this can be used by pips

40% - failure
60% - success

the general rule is : when a chaos scroll succeeds it has 11 possible outcomes which gives every outcome around 9% chance to happen(100/11=9)
a chaos scroll has a 60% chance to even succeed in the first place, if we multiply that by the chance of getting any of the below results AFTER a chaos scroll have worked,
then we get the final number of what is the chance to hit each result in general (0.6x0.0909=5.45)
9.09% - -5 - 5.45%
9.09% - -4 - 5.45%
9.09% - -3 - 5.45%
9.09% - -2 - 5.45%
9.09% - -1 - 5.45%
9.09% - 0 - 5.45%
9.09% - 1 - 5.45%
9.09% - 2 - 5.45%
9.09% - 3 - 5.45%
9.09% - 4 - 5.45%
9.09% - 5 - 5.45%

which leads to:
chance to have a fail or no change - 45.45%
chance to have a negative outcome - 27.25%
chance to have a positive outcome - 27.25%
chance to have a fail or nochange or negative outcome - 72.7%

so after all of this, you could consider your self using a 27% scroll when you expect a chaos scroll to buff your item, and a 5.45% scroll to get that juicy +5 stat boost.
well, if you take dummy(or white) scrolling into account, you can obiously get better odds when you eliminate and reduce the 40% chance of failing the scroll,
for you who believe that dummy scrolling really does affect the outcome, i would suggest to fail 3 60s in a row before using a chaos,
because the chances of failing 4 60s in a row are 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4=2.56% chance, as slim as this number may look,
it happened to me many times so do not count on this to be a some kind of a "method", i do junk scroll myself,
but not because i really believe it's doing something, i do it for fun but hey thats my opinion, might be wrong on that.

while using a white scroll and guaranteeing the success of your chaos scroll, you have 9.09% odds per result which means:
chance to have no change - 9.09%
chance to have a negative outcome - 45.45%
chance to have no change or negative outcome - 54.54%
chance to have a positive outcome - 45.45%

Spoiler: 30% vs chaos

30S AND CHAOS ARE NEVER USED ON THE SAME ITEMS UNLESS ITS FOR GLOVES, SO THIS NEXT COMPARASION SERVES ALMOST NO PURPOSE, DONT READ IF YOU VALUE YOUR TIME
even tho it has only a 27% chance to buff the item, i would not compare it to a 30% dark scroll because a dark scroll can boom the item and a cs can not,
but a cs can make an item worthless in certain situations which just makes it the same but the odds are different, i made a comparasion just cause im bored(quarantine xd):
chances to boom an item using a 30% scroll are 35%(0.7x0.5=0.35) <=> negative outcome from a cs - 27.25% chance
chances for it to fail and not boom are 35% <=> chances to fail + chances for success and no change - 45.45%
and chances to work as we obiously know are 30% <=> positive outcome from a cs - 27.25%
some facts this tells us:
1.the chances to simply have no change in our items and only lose 1 slot are 10.45% higher with a chaos scroll (doesnt mean that 30% scroll is less risky and i will get to that in my next point)
2.chances to have our item boomed is 7.75% higher then the chances of getting any negative outcome from a cs, chances to have our item boomed is 16.35% higher then the chances of getting negative outcome of -3 or more.
3.chances of having our item buffed (atleast +1) is 2.75% higher with a chaos scroll, chances to have our item buffed by 3 att or more is lower by
4.chaos scrolls are more worthy of a white scroll use because they have a higher chance to "just fail" which is 40% compared to 35%,
i would not consider a 30% dark scroll to have a 70% chance failure that is covered by the white scroll because in the 35% chance of a boom the white scroll value doesnt exist.
my final opionion is that 30s are more risky and have more probability to devalue your items(in this instance probably gloves),
yes i am saying some thing that was already obvious, a 30% scroll is more risky weeew what a genius ofcourse its more risky it has a chance to boom,
well i am not doing this to prove any point, i am doing this cause im bored and i like numbers

Spoiler: Experiment to prove theory

to cover all chances in THEORY you would need to buy 18 chaos scrolls and 18 items, which in this scenario i chose 4 att clean bfc which costs around 120m.
18 x 520 = 9.36b
18 x 120 = 2.16b
11.52b total spent
7 scrolls will fail leading to having 7 capes with 4 att 4 slots = 50x7= 350m
1 scroll will have a 0 change which equals a failure = 50m
1 scroll will result in 5att 4 slots = 200m
1 scroll will result in 6att 4 slots = 800m
1 scroll will result in 7att 4 slots = 1.5b
1 scroll will result in 8att 4 slots = 2.5b
1 scroll will result in 9att 4 slots = 3.5b
9% - -5 - 5.45% - 4att>0att
9% - -4 - 5.45% - 4 att>0att
9% - -3 - 5.45% - 4 att>1 att
9% - -2 - 5.45% - 4 att>2 att
9% - -1 - 5.45% - 4 att>3att
9% - 0 - 5.45% - 4att>4att
9% - 1 - 5.45% - 4att>5att
9% - 2 - 5.45% - 4att>6att
9% - 3 - 5.45% - 4att>7att
9% - 4 - 5.45% - 4att>8att
9% - 5 - 5.45% - 4att>9att