Hi everybody, So I'm trying to figure out how to calculate the 'fair market value' of an item. Obviously if you're scrolling an item and you're using 10% scrolls and you land 3 in a row, that's a 1 in 1000 chance of happening. But with imperfect items and uncompleted items, it's hard to gauge value. Here's an example. Let's say I'm scrolling a bathrobe with overall int 30% scrolls, let's calculate that I land 5 of 6 and now have a 25int 4 slot robe. Using this OmniCalculator setup: https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability I can input "6 attempts" using "at least" "5 successes" with a probability of "0.3", which outputs a 1.093% of happening, or about 1 in 91.5. If we were to assume the fair market value of a 30% overall int scroll is 15mil (not adding the value of the item clean since bathrobes are NPC purchases), then 91.5 attempts multiplied by 15mil would mean the fair market mathematical value of this robe would be almost 1.4bil. But this doesn't account for the 35% chance of the item blowing up per attempt, which would be multiplicative per scroll used, I assume. So taking that 1.4bil value and multiplying by 1.35 to get almost 1.9bil wouldn't be a fair representation of the item's theoretical fair market value because the chance of it blowing up after 6 scrolls is far greater than 35%. Obviously I'm removing a lot of the complexity because you could've used different % scrolls which sell at different values, but this is just the general idea. So my questions are: 1. Does this line of thinking even map on to reality? Would this not be how we would assume the general theoretical value of a scrolled item, outside of market dynamics? 2. Does anyone have an idea for how to add the calculation and chances of dark scrolls blowing up your equip to have a more fair evaluation of an item? Thanks!
Maybe someone else can help you with the math part, but I'll say the "market dynamics" of "it's worth whatever someone will pay for it" is the ultimate deciding factor. And then for unfinished items, it's better to actually work backwards based on slots left to work out market value. Of course, if it's a really unique item then price history might not exist and you'll have to resort to this "fair value" sort of estimation. Even then, it's ultimately up to the seller and buyer to make a decision / come to an agreement. Hope that made sense.
LOL, funny that the person who inspired my degenerate scrolling activities is the one to respond. I absolutely agree that it's only worth what someone is willing to pay. From this example, in my head I was thinking with 4 slots, landing 2 of 4 60% scrolls would be 29int, maybe it's worth something around that. That being said, there are a lot of items on the market that sell for more than how much it should cost to make them, so if I'm gonna degen scroll, I want to at least do it with those items hahaha Anyways, thanks for the response and quality content!
Haha what a coincidence. Cheers mate. Be a smart gambler and take calculated risks for sure, at least then you won't feel as bad when you fail. I'll give you an example from a while back (no idea about current prices). I remember shield m.att 10% was 5m ea, maple shields were 2m ea. However a +1 maple shield with that scroll was around 120m IIRC. So it was statistically profitable. However the 10%s were very scarce at the time, probably only 3-5 of them available in owl at any time. I imagine the prices would adjust over time though and you'd need to find the next profitable thing etc.
I have made a guide in this direction already. At the end I estimate the value of a perfect RC in terms of the average cost of making it. I valued a RC at 63 WS, which is the actual cost if you were to make it from scratch. This translates to 31b today. When WS prices are lower a RC should also go down. When they were 400m, the RC should cost 25b. Which is usually about what a perf RC cost. I think many of your questions can be answered by reading the guide. 1. Yes 100%. If you think about buying a perf RC for more than the value of 63WS. DON’T! It is NOT worth more that. 2. Read my guide, I’m sure you can find much of what you are looking for. Please ask and I will be happy to clarify. https://royals.ms/forum/threads/scrolling-guide-cheapest-way-to-perfect-equips.168346/ I used a RC as an example, but you can do the same calculations for all items by following my guide. It also works for 1,2,3,5,6 slots.
usually the prices of scrolled items is a little below the average cost it would take to scroll them. but not all items go by that.
