not doing any vl for bon for a full 1 week air is fresh soil is moist the forest is whispering between foggy mountains RNGs are being fucked
We have 1500+ auf-ed characters during this 2-3 years This is based on the 2 facts: - As far as i've heard/i've known, there are at least 3 players who finished their auf helmet with less than 100 miracle scrolls in the past 2-3 years, and many more finished in under 150 scrolls like nothing unusual - In theory, the chance to finish auf helmet in under 100 scrolls is 0.197%, as shown below using Negative Binomial Distribution (11.297% to finish under 150 scrolls) by 3/0.00197 we get 1522 The "Beginner's Luck" theory - The server wants to retain newer players by giving them better RNG on certain activities - One of those is the WS+10% pass rate - A player has a favourable WS+10% pass rate(means, more than 10%) before they have finished X slots on any item in their whole maplelife - Therefore, if you plan to scroll an auf helmet, the most cost-efficient way is to never WS+10% on any other items before you start your WS+10% journey from auf helmet ... ........ I have totally no data on how many ws10 slots those who got luck on auf helm have finished before their auf helm hahahhaha but I invite you whoever have finished auf to share your data 11/100(260425) + 8/100(260530) + 1/?(surely before smoke nerfed) finished 25+ slots on random items before this
free bump to your selling thread. I highly doubt if it's realistic that there are 1500 finished auf helms. Also from an experimental perspective, your data should come with a large error bar. 1. There is not enough MIR for 1500 auf helms. Right now (6:15 servertime, 23:15 California time, and afternoon in Asia), there are only 2 auf channels taken (10%). From my experience, most of the time (like >80%), the auf channel I use is not taken. Neo Tokyo was released in Nov. 2019, 6.5 years from now. Suppose: 1/4 of the time an auf channel is taken Spoiler: actually lower than 1/4 ^ channel free ^ channel taken ^ it's possible that people are sleeping in ch 3. on average an auf run takes 60 min mir drop rate 90% There will be 256,230 mir's. On average, that would be 1281 finished auf helms. If there are 1500 finished auf helms, mir should be in super high demand. 2. "there are at least 3 players who finished their auf helmet with less than 100 miracle scrolls in the past 2-3 years" is very high experimental error. If you estimate with binomial distribution you will need to do the experiment thousands of times to accurately measure the probability. For example, event X happens with 0.197% probability. If you want to estimate the probability within 20% error (0.197% ± 0.0394%) with 95% confidence, the sample size should be 48,700 (total finished auf helms), and event X should happen about 96 times, much larger than 3.
