Hi friends. I happen to be studying economics in university. That being said, I am extremely interested in the dynamics of the MapleRoyals economy. I made this thread to see everyone's opinion on what is going to happen when the new source finalizes! Due to a plethora of changes made to the server, it is reasonable to predict that the economy is going to go haywire. The two key drivers of the price of an item are its supply and its demand. If there is relatively high supply, price goes down. If there is relatively high demand, price goes up. Short run, in the context of this post, is anything between 1 day to 1 month, and long run is anything longer. Here is a list of items that I think will be largely affected by the new source (and all the waiting that came with it...) White Scrolls and Chaos Scrolls will temporarily go down in price in the short run due to a hell of a lot of gachapons going off at the same time. The price was approximately 300-315m last I checked (fact check me in the comments please). I predict they will go down to as low as 250m. The ingredients to Deputy Star will stay the same price in the short run, but will eventually go down because of limited Deputy Stars (only 1 per character after new source introduced). This will mainly affect the prices of soiled rags (previously 750k-1m) and lucky charms (previously 500k). I predict they will reduce to about half that price in the long run. The Deputy Star itself will stay the same price in the short run (I forgot price but maybe 150m?--fact check) and will go up as much as 50% in the long run. This will be an interesting item to watch, as people will surely make one on each of their characters, possibly keeping the price low. AP resets will, in the short run, go down in price. It is possible they may go down as low as 5m. In the long run, they will go back up to approximately 8-10m. This is one that I am less sure about, as it is likely that a lot more people will buy these out at low prices, driving prices back up. This will be a fun one to watch. They should not be affected in the long run (at least by the new source). Scrolls in general will probably be a little bit cheaper in the short run. I would predict approximately 10% lower across the board. This will be especially apparent in scrolls at popular gachapon locations. They should return to normal in the long run. Zakum helmets will go up in price in the short run. This will likely not be too much, maybe as much as 10% or even 20%. This is because of the lack of Zakum runs since the new source, as players continue to level up. They should not be affected in the long run unless you all know something I don't. Skill books that are uniquely found in bossing areas such as zakum, horntail, etc. will go up in price. These might go up as much as 20%, especially for things like genesis 20 and triple throw 10. 20% just came from the top of my head but that's my prediction regardless. The price of leech is hard for me to predict. I have a feeling that it will change due to a shaken up economy, but I don't know what will happen to it. Maybe nothing. Please let me know of anything that you think will change in price so that I can make my own prediction Thoughts? Zaxo
I think the AP probably will not go down to 5m each，for if the price goes too low ppl will just hold it to wait till the price go normal or change to gach。and I guess the demand for AP is up when new source finshed as many ppl are waiting for it to wash。so the price will probably go down to 7m each or even a bit higher。and maybe you can add sth about apples and heartstoppers。
First of all, great post Zax. I'm really interested in how the market will react as well. these are all my opinions and may include some bias CS/WS - Lowest price would be 270M. They are always in demand and at this price many of the wealthier players wouldn't hesitate to buy these. Especially since prices are likely to re-stabilize to 300M, making this a good investment. Deputy Star - Will eventually rise up to 200M due to the lack of supply you mentioned with the same demand. Although, with the release of the Mark of Naricain pendent from CWKPQ its price may drop again. AP Resets - Lowest price would be 7M, same reason as CS/WS. Zakum Helmet/Horn Tail Pendant (and all drops associated, i.e. MW20) - Will temporarily rise due: Lack of runs and thus a lack of supply. Genesis 20/30 could be an exception due to bishop nerfs (elewand) and the buff to their archmage counterparts, lowering the demand for these books and raising the demand for Blizzard and Meteor Shower (fp hype train) Price of Leech - Very interested into seeing where this will end up going, being a leecher myself. Factors that I believe will affect the price of leech: (1) Redistribution of wealth - With the prolonged closure and eventual opening of the Cash Shop, the flood gates will be opened and there will be a large influx of mesars to all voting players. This will give the power to many players to purchase leech (increased demand) and will thus drive up the price of leech, at least temporarily. = INCREASE IN DEMAND (2) Archmage Buffs - With the recent buff to archmages, their damage has been increased and thus achieving the hitting thresholds (i.e. 1 hit petri, 1 hit ulu, etc.) is more easily achievable. This leads to more players being able to provide the leeching service and driving down the price due to increased competition. = INCREASE IN SUPPLY (3) Influx of AP Resets - With the large quantities of AP resets bound to enter the market, people will be creating and HP washing new characters. And as we all know, characters with high base int are deadweight, incapable of training themselves. This increases the demand for leech because it is literally the only way they can progress with their character efficiently. = INCREASE IN DEMAND I'm sure there are more factors to consider, but this is all I can be bothered to think of right now, lol.
Won't the decrease in population make all that somehow irrelevant? I don't know much about economics but MRS isn't as populated as before (for now). Even if there's some changes to the economics @Sharpenel's prediction might be more on point or even lesser margin than what he said.
This is correct. His forecast is pretty accurate, for a ceteris paribus forecast, that is. However, population has taken a deep dive ever since new source, so the supply part is hugely affected by this. The direction of things (increase or decrease) will most likely hold true, but the margin will be considerably less.
I suspect the population will gradually return given some players' previous investment into the game. We will probably see a spike in the number of new players who have been waiting to register since the outset of the New Source. I would like to add another category to your analysis: End-Game Gears: e.g. lv 85 + I think this category is a wild card. A number of players continue to play this game in its current state. I suspect some of these players are looking for gear upgrades once the FM returns. Clean high-end gear will be in demand due to a sudden influx of scrolls from Gachapon and those held by players (monster drops) during the closed-registration period on the market. Viewed from another angle, since scrolling was disabled during the closed-registration period, there could be a shortage of decently scrolled items to meet this demand. However, if most players looking for upgrades resort to scrolling to meet the demand, then I suspect clean and high-rolled end-game gear will be in high demand. But this demand could be de minimis given how few players are playing right now. It will be interesting to see how the predicted increase in availability of chaos scrolls will affect the quality of items on the market, as well as the prices thereof.
I agree with the original post. Also regarding the population decrease, I think there are 2 things to consider: 1. Many people are not playing atm, but are still voting and will be back as more functions are fixed 2. While the population decrease does decrease the supply it also means it decreases demand which means they will likely balance out regardless of population and likely won't be a factor preventing prices from dropping
Just a petty calculation for the first point its been 6 weeks. gtop100 shows that the there r 1000+ ppl voting daily in the past month. we know that there is a problem with the voting page, and , so 42*2000*8000=672m, which is 784,000 gachapon tix. According to https://royals.ms/forum/threads/conclusion-ap-resets-vs-gacha.29662/#post-169053 the possibility of getting a ws is 7/1000 If all the tix go to ws, there will be 784*7=5488 ws flooding into the server. If we assume 1/4 of ppl gacha for ws/cs/Taru Totem (the replacement of bvm)/others, respectively, there will be 5488/4=1372 ws (or cs) flooding into the server. For every extra week of gacha, it will be 1372/6=228.7 ws 7 weeks: 1600 ws 8 weeks: 1889 ws 9 weeks: 2178 ws side note: 5488 ws is 1,646,400 million worth of meso if ws=300m *ap reset is an important sink too. How much is the ratio of ap reset nx : gacha nx? ----------- update Mar. 31: voting on gtop100 has been decreasing ^^this assumption turns out to be quite accurate. Voting on gtop100 became necessary to get NX after Mar. 18. The # of voters doubled after that. When I was writing the reply it was Mar. 12 and the # of voters on gtop100 was 1000 to 1200. Ima do a simple modification on my estimation cuz the the # of voters has decreased from 2000 to 1000. I will assume the decrease of voters to be linear for simplicity, although decreasing exponentially is more accurate. Taking an average, the voters between Feb. 18 and Mar. 31 is 1500/day, or say 75% of 2000. I dont have data for Jan. 1 to Feb. 12, so I will just take 2000 as the number. Jan. 1 to Feb. 12: same result as the original reply. (1372 WS's) Feb. 12 to Mar 31 (or Apr. 2, about 7 weeks): 7*7*8000*1500=588m NX There will be 228.7*75%*7=1200 WS's coming to the server. Hence there will be 1372+1200=2572 WS's coming. # of voters stay around 1k now. ------ The # of voters stays at 1000 after Mar. 31 (week 13). For every extra week there are 114.4 WS coming. As of week 16, the total number is 2915.
1) Many still vote but no longer play the game. 2) Not everyone gonna use the NX on gacha. 3) Not everyone gonna gacha at NLC or Shrine (or wherever WS and CS come from).
Yes ur right except for the first point which I don't understand cuz why do u vote everyday when u don't play this game anymore. And I added a * note about ap reset. Also pls note how this number 1372 comes out. It assumes 1/4 for ea of the gacha places. The result is correct in terms of the order of magnitude, e.g. when the server is up (incorrect) the related contents are working again, there will be thousand(s) of ws coming into the server.
Lol I don't know why. Some of them just do that. As a sign of support even after quitting the game, I think. Very small percentage of them, though. Also, I would like to point out that we have a declining vote counts since 2017. Actual amount of NX in server might be more than that, but if we really take gtop100 vote counts, then they are indeed less than a thousand per day now. This also do not include those shady vote abusers lurking out there. But I get your idea. For sure WS/CS gonna flood in the market, but the numbers are certainly not that much. There are a lot of other factors to consider, too, like whether voting players are gonna return to the game or not, or when do they return, etc.
I don't think minor factor needs to be taken into account. There r however some major factors that may need to be taken into further discussion. 1. What's the actual # of ppl voting on royals webpage? I know tons of ppl who "vote" but don't actually vote. 2. What's the ratio of nx going to gacha'ing at ws/cs (and even Taru Totem, or say bvm) versus nx going to other places? 3. What's nx(ap reset):nx(gachapon), which we all mentioned? 4. This is an important point. How long would the meso created (meso dropped and npc'ing) been able to smooth out the influence of these weeks of free nx when few ppl r grinding?
