Closed Piece of Cracked Dimension Issue

IGN: Zaxus
Problem: Piece of Cracked Dimension A, B, C will not drop from spirit viking (or the other mob, I think it is phantom watch or something like that)
Details: It appears that my character either:
-------------A. will not trigger a drop of the pieces of cracked dimension for the papulatus prequest (probable)
-------------B. cannot see the cracked dimension (and therefore pick up) for the papulatus prequest

Spoiler: Quest Information

http://i.imgur.com/vSwt6C6.png

Spoiler: Viking Sail

http://i.imgur.com/frxRgNJ.png

Spoiler: Zaxo's crappy statistical analysis

Assuming that Viking Sail has a 100% chance to drop (it doesn't, but let's assume it does), we can take the chance that I don't get the item. We find this by calculating the chance that I won't get the item from each kill (97%, according to Sila, aka a 3% drop rate) and multiplying that probability by itself for each viking killed (which in practice looks like multiplying it by the amount of cloths as the exponent.) This looks like (97/100)^116 = 2.9%.

So there is a 3% chance, assuming that 1 kill = 1 viking sail. That's not much chance, but there's a chance that its just bad luck. So I continued.

Spoiler: New Exponent

http://i.imgur.com/QfX1uv2.png

Now we take a new exponent, 200, and plug it into the same equation: (97/100)^200 = 00.23% chance that this is simply bad luck

I don't know the droprate of viking sails, but I assume its something between 25% and 75%, which would make that exponent even higher (assuming a whopping 75% droprate, it would turn 200 into 267 (200/.75)

There are ways to estimate with 95, 99, 99.9 etc. chance certainty that something is some way (given a sample size it changes these things) but I honestly didn't pay that much attention in that portion of class so I couldn't do that for y'all.

omg I got a kick out of this I hope y'all did.

TL; DR It is highly likely that there is a problem with my character not being able to get the cracked dimension drops.

 

Re-insert the image link, it seems you copied the wrong link 0.o

 

that's weird it works on my screen but ill put a second link

 

You're killing the god damn wrong monster of course it doesn't drop LMFAO XDDDDDDDDDDD

 

didn't the quest say "gigantic spirit viking" for instance? You're killing just the normal spirit vikings. You have to go in the hidden map located at the top right hand corner of the spirit vikings map to look for the gigantic versions

 

Omg nooooo Zaxus..... I am so sorry . I told him they drop the damn pieces. God damn all types of vikings

 

This is all your doing!

 

RIP closed

But doing stats on it was more fun than killing them I regret nothing ~~

 

I prefer

But to be fair I have essentially proved that you can't get them from regular spirit Viking F3

 

....I did tell you GIGANTIC spirit vikings and grim phantom watches in the shoutbox... lol

 

SILA IT WASNT BAD LUCK IT WAS STUPIDITY get it straight thx

 

Spoiler: Bad Luck

http://i.imgur.com/bRGP6rT.png