All of the above will happen beside ws/cs. Rich ppl will always be buying them no matter how big the supply gets the demand is always there. Ap reset supply is debatable as 99% will gacha really doubt ap going to go down.
Okay this will be fun. Not all of it will be used at the same time (in fact it is doubtful that it will ALL be used ever), but we can at least take a look at theoreticals (feel free to correct my math): Spoiler: Gachapons 8,385,856,995 / 30,000 * 35 = (approx) 9,783,499 gachapons At approximately 1/255 for white scrolls (this is the fraction that I have heard, but it could be wrong), there could be 9,783,499 / 255 = 38,366 white scrolls! Assuming people are only aiming at perfect weapons/armors (excluding 10 slot overalls) and use a 30% successfully before using 10% and white scrolls, we can take 38,366 / 6 = 6,394 perfect items! (Although this is approximate, at such a large sample size we can assume this is fairly accurate to within a few percentage points, but I'm not going to do a statistical analysis) Spoiler: AP Resets 8,385,856,995 / 3,100 = 2,705,115 AP resets! If all used on a warrior they could net 2,705,115 * ~52.5 = 131,518,538 HP from washing! (and 12,525,575 mp washed into hp) But even if a small percentage of this massive amount of nx is used all at once, I think it is silly to think that ws/cs will stay at the same price, same with ap resets. There ARE people who will be using them, but with only about 150-300 people online at any given time right now (and dropping), I think that the prices will DEFINITELY drop when people come back. I can't say how much, because I don't know. But if my economic theory is correct, supply will far outshine demand, causing price slumps.
You forgot an important item on the list, onyx apples. Due to the limited daily runs from now on, a reason why everyone were stacking up on those right before the 1st update of the new source. This is just a hunch but I can imagine the price will remain the same and slowly start going higher as people who were stacking up, would be running out of stacks to sell at one point.
https://royals.ms/forum/threads/how-much-have-you-saved.89323/page-2 Most of the ppl in this post has <1m NX. Since there are only 1000-2000 ppl voting as shown on gtop100, there must be lots of NX on inactive accounts.
The prices will drop hard af, mark my words. That's the reason I'm not buying anything right now and playing (mostly farming scrolls+saving mesos by NPCing crap) with clean noob gear on my chars due to my registration just 2 weeks before the new source. Everything will lose almost 50% of its value until the prices will go back to normal again. Just for comparison - gold zombie teeth drop rate was increased first, making lots of teeth to enter the market. Needless to say the price have dropped - I saw people selling those for like 650k ea and nobody was buying. That's more than 60% drop in price. Now good luck finding these for 1.5m ea with the new drop rate. Most people are selling for 2m now like they used to be because nobody is willing to farm them with such low drop rate. Oh and gach is not only "more WS/CS". That's also dark/normal scrolls, sky skis, PGCs, endgame claws, pretty much everything you can think of. When the cash shop will be finally fixed (and it will take a lot of time, trust me) most players are going to have at least 1m nx. That's more than 1100 tickets per char. If someone here thinking such huge amounts of tickets gaching AT THE SAME TIME will not affect the market at all, he is being delusional.
I think you're vastly over estimating the number of WS and CS that will enter the server. 1) a lot of people want AP resets ( myself included) 2) a lot of people want WS and CS for self use and will blow all their NX trying to get them and won't sell the scrolls Then you have people who gach just for money Then you have people who get AP resets to sell for money Then you have people who do none of the above and use it for clothing, pets, making good pets, etc. Even so, they aren't permenent scrolls. They will be used, and the economy will go back to normal after a few months if it does go wonky for a bit. I've got a half dozen alts crammed full of scrolls from gach, ya know, the ones that you don't drop. The items are out there, but theres a finite number of spots in the FM that get the traffic needed to move inventory quickly. Unless the rates of good items go up from gach and everyone and their mother has WS, PAC's, etc in their store, I don't see a huge change, and as I said above, the items are disposable, so WS and CS will be leaving the market quickly, along with those good items like PACs when peopls CS don't work out.
Sure not EVERYONE is going to gach, but lets face it - most people will. When you have a crowd and most of the crowd does a certain thing, you have a trend even if some people don't go along with it. Its still there, it exists. Besides, I highly doubt people are going to blow up 1m nx on pets and cosmetics only. Every day I see people in the shoutbox saying things like "Can't wait to blow my nx on gach" so trust me, most people will gach with most if not all of their nx. I personally will, but much later after the whole hype The prices will eventually go back to normal, I agree with you. But the price drop will happen and it will not be some 10-5% change in prices. And theoretically, the rates of good items will go up. I don't think there was ever mass gaching in history of MapleRoyals in such numbers. No way it will just happen and the economy is not going to react to such event.
Where are you getting that the rates should go up? More WS because more people gach =/= WS are more likely to pop out of the gach machine
The rates will go up theoretically. There is a huge statistic difference between gaching with 30-100 tickets and gaching with 1000. All in one day. 800+- players. At the same time. Understand my point? Therefore more endgame items/WS/CS/everything enter the market at the same time=more sellers willing to sell at the same time (this is very important)=price decreases. As simple as that. And even if 100++ of these players will somehow spend 1m of their nx on pets/cosmetics and ap resets instead (which will go down as well by the way) it won't change the overall economic trend. It is inevitable.
It still doesn't mean WS are more likely to drop out of the gach at any given moment.......... Flipping a coin has 2 outcomes at 50%, always. Same idea. The rate is the same, just the number of people gaching is changing, so more chances. Also, you're forgetting it takes dozens of WS to even start making a perfect weapon, most people don't get more than 2 or 3 WS on a good sized gach run. It just isn't enough to throw the market like you think it will.
A little bit more than 24 hours since the CS update, around 13.33% price drop (average from 240-280 as the price now) for WS after 1 limited mass gach run with 70 tickets. Now we are about to enter our second gach run and prices are going to drop even more after we hit the gach again. It was more than obvious. Can you imagine what it's gonna be 2-3 weeks from today or worse, what would happen in the next few days if there would be no tickets limit? Just take the numbers and use your imagination And people have actually said prices will NEVER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES drop to below 280m. Toppest kek.
From what I seen, the price haven't really dropped. I see a few minorities selling it for maybe 270m for quick cash, but the majority of the players sells at 300m-320m. Even if there was no limit, I doubt the price would drop hard, since it takes like 15+ ws to make a decent weapon/gear (well depending on my luck so far) Also, even if there was a huge amount of supply of white scrolls, it'll get used up quickly. Not to mention that some people uses ws/cs as a way of currency to bypass the max meso count, so theres that too. I think smart players will hold on to whatever ws they get or buy when its cheap, wait for everyone to use up their nx, sell when price rises again (if it even drops significantly) Just my thoughts No bash pl0x
For those that are familiar with economics it makes no sense for ws prices to not fall. Right now we are able use 70 tix Per day compared to before in which we only had an avg of 9. This means there will be 7-8x the supply of ws in relation to demand compared to the old source. Even Money (or mesos in this case) will lose value if there is an influx of it which is why countries don't print money out of the blue 24/7 and why meso sink is so crucial to mmorpg's. So it unfortunately doesn't make any sense that a ws won't drop in value because ws used to =300m.
