XANARK but I disagree. As once scrolling opens WS will be leaving the market so fast it won't matter. People will use them and poof it's gone.
Heya Ewon, What part are you in disagreement? I didn't mention anything about scrolling in my previous post. Scrolling being disabled is a huge factor in ws prices as you have said, although I don't think it's to that degree And while ws will probably begin trending upwards again some time after scrolling comes back i kind of doubt it's going to be back to normal in a day or two. Ultra rich players arent 10% of the player base they are more something like 0.5%. I doubt they plan on buying a bunch of ws out of the blue unless they become super cheap. I have 60b+ in assets and even I'm not a part of that 0.5%. I've never used a ws in my life. The way I see it, if white scrolls were so incredibly in demand that 8x the supply would not knock it under 300m then they would've been 500m before the new source started
People want those tasty perfect weapons, and to make those they need WS. My point was just that scrolls will snap back, if people dont want to sell for less than 300m, they should just hold onto them, the prices wont stay down, if at all, forever.
Spoiler: Zenoooo This is kind of cool, it will likely have a bit of an effect on the prices of other nx-based items, pushing them up in price slightly in the long run. Unfortunately 12,000/14 days is pretty slight, so it may not even affect them at all. The max nx in a 14 day period is 112,000; the price of a shop for the same amount of time is 12,000. Take 12,000/112,000, we get .107 (10.7%), so for those who maintain a shop constantly, they will be able to buy about 10% less other nx items (gacha tickets/resets). The reason that I don't think it will affect too much is that a lot of people tend to save their nx over time anyways (for example, I only use it every few months), which would bring that 10% even lower, and also that not everyone will have a shop running 24/7. I could be wrong, it could affect them more, but I'd imagine between 0~5% price increase in the long run. Spoiler: 70_gacha_per_day Another thing I'd like to discuss is the maximum gachapon tickets per day at 70/day for a few weeks as I understand it. This is a very smart idea, kudos to whoever made it up! @Matt should probably know. I think that it will fight to keep prices in check, to an extent. I'd predict they still go down but don't just tank instantly. This is something I would consider to be akin to government regulations in the real market. It's going to act almost like a governmental contractionary policy http://xplaind.com/525232/contractionary-monetary-policy . Now, it is going to have some different effects, I think, than a real contractionary policy. After all, there's just simply different forces acting on the mapleroyals economy versus a normal economy. I like to think of this as putting a nozzle on a hose on a water tank. The water tank still have the same amount of water in it, but the nozzle will force it to empty more slowly, causing less... chaos. Cool stuff! We'll see soon!
I doubt limiting gacha tix per day would work tho. Currently the market is very inactive. Features related to CS like shop permit/hired merchant, Fredrick, ap reset have not been implemented yet. The NX in 111 days is about 1050 tix, or say 15 days of gacha tix. Considering the time taken on the features done before, I think when the market is well-functioning again, most ppl have already spent their NX on gacha.
I think you guys are forgetting that the FM economy isn't like the real world, because it doesn't cost the supplier anything if their items don't sell. We've all inflated the prices on some atypical items (not your run-of-the-mill scrolls) and hope that someone comes along and is "foolish" or desperate enough to buy whatever you're selling. It's like going fishing: you put some bait on the hook and hope some fish comes along to eat it, but if no fish bite after literally 1 day then you shrug your shoulders and try again the next day--maybe a little bit cheaper. Meanwhile, in the real world, when businesses don't sell their products/services they risk losing that business entirely, which is a person's livelihood. THEN FM principles come into play and prices go down or there's a cut in cost, etc. If you had to pay like 10mil-50mil meso everyday to survive in MR then I assure you things would translate more to real-world economics. inb4 someone advocates meso redistribution to the noob class or whatever
No, I'm just highlighting a factor in predicting trends in an economy that I thought wasn't taken into account. Simply put: there is little/no consequence of overpricing in MR, because people don't need to sell their items to maintain their livelihood (i.e. buying food, clothes, medical care, education, housing, etc. which are needed in the real world). So I don't think prices will drop that much despite the increased supply in gach items. For one example the OP gave: he estimated WS/CS will drop to 250m from 300m-315m which is about a 20% decrease in cost. And I know that's just one item out of the whole economy, but that's the gist of what I was saying. I just don't think these prices will drop that much, but we'll see!
For normal players, sure items unsold could be a problem cuz that affects their gameplay (they need meso to buy good/scroll equips, books, and att potions). For merchants, overpricing and items unsold could lead to a problem that too many new items are coming to the market and/or the one overpricing has to keep buying items that are cheaper than his price (- tax) so as to maintain the price, which could be a huge investment and be of high risk. Could you show how it would make a difference on the supply and demand theory, the monetarism equation MV=PQ, and so forth what you are saying here?
Well that's awfully broad. Unsold items can also NOT effect affect their gameplay. I don't understand this hypothetical. Why does the merchant have to keep buying anything??? I'm not talking about theory, I'm talking about psychology. Food, housing, education, etc. are not factors in MR. You could play the game without setting foot in the FM if you chose. Try going through life without food, housing, etc. and post your results.
sry but nothing more to discuss with you, cuz unfortunately you don't have any economics knowledge. period
@coolguy, I understand your point and it's a very important one. It's something I have personally considered, but its too much to list every factor of something as broad as economics in a forum post so usually I just keep to the main points. Anyways to your point, with 8x the supply, if most people keep their white scrolls instead of selling them then they will probably end up waiting a very long time just to make an extra 1b or so assuming that white scrolls go as low as 200m and as high as 300m and also if a players has 10 or more. Within that time their white scrolls could've bought them some much needed items or they could have easily invested that 2b and have made 6b or something. But there are definitely some who are willing to wait a month or two to make a 1b profit.
Lack of scrolling and character creation is a huge factor as well. Sooner or later people will be forced to sell items due to lack of inventory, unless they are willing to hold the nx or farm less items until character creation becomes available or they have made 9000 mule accounts before the new source which is something I doubt most of us did. Judging by how much time it took to bring the CS, character creation+registration along with scrolling and stores opening will take at least 2 months. By that time, inventory is going to be an issue for most of us. The only thing I can recommend here is stop gaching until char creation is available, but its hard to resist the temptation. I personally will not gach anymore. Oh and for the record, the real world issue you have mentioned is middle/lower class aka wage slave issue only. If you have a net worth of 25 billion USD and you have a few bad months or even years, you will not go broke or be hungry. You will shrug it off later with better times. The worst thing can happen to you is you will have to live more "humble" for a while, but you don't even have to. For example, billionaire George Soros have lost over 1 billion last year. He doesn't care. This guy is not struggling to survive to say the least. Another example is Donald Trump who was bankrupt with some of his businesses a lot of times, but he is still a billionaire. But if your net worth is something like 50k usd and you have a bad year or even a couple of months, you are screwed.
Yeah I can see inventory space being an issue--especially in the Use slot. ....exactly. That's at least 90% of the population. Even millionaires are at risk if they overspend. I don't know how it is where you're posting, but in the United States there are numerous examples of lottery winners who win hundreds of millions of dollars and then go broke after a decade or so. We can nitpick these hypotheticals all day, but I think this still applies to the vast majority of people.
Both use and equip slot actually. I get some nice godly equips I would like to scroll and sell later for profit/use for my future characters I wanna make. Add the gachapon equips and there we have it...So I'm forced to stop gaching now. About the lottery winners (it is also a worldwide phenomenon what you've said), I can tell why as someone who studies deep psychology on a daily basis. It will take me years to break it down in details, but in short - it is because their brain and way of thinking did not develop along with their wallet. They were poor/average their whole lives, and suddenly got huge amount of money without getting through the whole process. Any entrepreneur here will understand what exactly am I talking about. Their brain cannot handle it, and they go on a wasting spree, thinking the same miracle will happen again, someday. Add no experience with economy and zero money management skills and you get what you get. There is also the "need to impress" factor - they wanna show their poor/middle class friends "how rich they are" and impress them. They did the same thing before, but with much less money. Now they are doing it with millions. It has nothing to do with what you we were talking about before. It's psychological issue.
So you somewhat agree with my point for +90% of the population, but disagree when it comes to billionaires/lottery winners?
And Chaos actually rose to 350m, too. No one predicted that CS would inflate because lack of people having inventory space = lack of people gaching at Shrine.
