Dummy Scrolling

Another reply on the reason dummy scrolling does not work is because they are independent events... how does it apply to guessing whether a random number generator is going to get 1 to 5 or 5 to 10??

Let's say you scroll a equip with two 50%( weapon attack scroll) which 1 to 6 is passing 7 to 12 is failing. On the first guess, you guess the random number generator is going to get a 1 to 6(pass) so you use it on your main equip, the 2nd guess you feel you're going to hit a 7 to 12(fail) so you use it on the dummy equip, how does guessing which scroll is going to pass not work? its' adding another probability factor to the mix?... what does independent events have to do with guessing whether a scroll is going to work which is the whole point of dummy scrolling

 

Because what you are doing is not dummy scrolling. It's just choosing what scroll you are going to use on what equip. I think the issue is what you are calling dummy scrolling is not what dummy scrolling actually is and what everyone else is referring to with the term "dummy scrolling"

 

If we were able to guess 100% of the time whether it would succeed or not, then yes, what you are saying it can work. But no, we can't guess accurately unless you were able to track the RNG accurately (since RNG is about an algorithm generating random numbers based on a seed and if you knew the seed, you might be able to follow it).

Imagine you have a dice (1-6) and you think it is going to be 4-6. You bet with your friend that it is going to do so and you roll. The dice shows 2. You lost your money but you "believe" that your guessing will right the next time and your instincts says 4-6 will happen again. What are the chances of you being right this time? Still the same, only 50% and nothing more.

@cakesogood Basically, guessing whether the scroll is going to pass or not, does nothing to your chances statistically

 

I dont get how your reply has anything to do with mine??? but if you don't get what I'm trying to say look at this video which is pretty long.. the guy felt he was going to generate a random number that's going to cause the glove for attack to fail at that point of time so based on his instincts he used a scroll for shield def on a shield and generated a fail number because he guessed it

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory)

 

(since RNG is about an algorithm generating random numbers based on a seed and if you knew the seed, you might be able to follow it).
GFA 60% of passing pass rate is generating number 0~59(pass) 60 to 100(fail) it should be like that because of what the scroll states
What are the chances of you being right this time? Still the same, only 50% and nothing more.
yes you're absolutely right there's no way of telling if you're going to get it right this time but if you guess correctly you would not lose the bet and in maple terms (won't lose the slot) so there's another rng factor to it and that's why it works depending on your luck..

I agree that it does not increase the percentage it will still remain 50%.. but the reason it works is not that it increases the percentage but it's because you bypassed the fact that you would have got a 1 to 3 at that moment due to luck@-@

working and increasing the probability are totally different things

 

But what on earth is your point? How does it work?

It can't work. For it to work, it'd have to increase the probability. Duh.

 

They are the exact same thing. For it to work, it needs to increase the chances of your success. Cakesogood, your misunderstanding stems from thinking that, say for example, you have two 50% scroll, it doesn't mean that one scroll had to succeed and the other fail. Both can succeed if you hit the correct RNG at that point of time. Like a coin toss. You can fail the first coin toss and it does not guarantee a success on your second coin toss.

Even if you "missed" the fail RNG, it doesn't mean the next RNG will definitely be a success. Please read up on the concept of independent events.

Also I won't be replying anymore. We are going in circles around your misconception on statistics

 

But doesn't this also wrongly assume that the scroll passing or failing is predetermined by the individual scroll itself? That scroll that you failed on your "dummy" item very well could've passed on the item you wanted it to pass on. What are you accomplishing other than wasting your own time?

 

I don't know how many times I've bought a scroll, it ended in disaster, and I thought "that scroll was literally cursed". It's funny, because I actually don't believe for real that scrolls are stored in some database with a corresponding pass/fail attribute, still this is what I feel in some moments and act upon.

Other ideas like the above can pop into my head. In fact, the other day I even went to "The Cursed Sanctuary" to scroll. Something in me must've thought the probability of scrolls were coded to increase in that particular map - or I was just desiring some company with Balrog...

To me, dummy scrolling is one of these things. (Doesn't stop me from doing it myself sometimes - I mean, who doesn't find joy in seeing a Stolen Fence blow up from a Shield Def 30%?)

I'd also like to add my definition of work:
"When scrolling works, it means it's following the coded probability of success and failure according to design"
So therefore, both scrolling and dummy scrolling works.

 

I guess anyone here can define dummy scrolling how they want to and claim it works. However, for the purposes of clarity since unlike GMS the community has the ability to interact with staff and get insight into the server’s development, I can tell you that dummy scrolling is not a real thing on this server.

Pure randomness comes into play when determining whether the scroll will work or not. There are no predefined values, no “this is scroll #638292 and it is preprogrammed to pass no matter who uses it on what”, nothing like that.

So those who want to continue dummy scrolling certainly may but it definitively is a waste of a scroll and waste of time since it will not in any way affect your odds of subsequent scrolls passing or failing

 

I can't believe some people still think dummy scrolling is a thing.

Anyway, when you use the scroll you activate the script/scroll code and then the RNG runs. There's no 'predetermined' RNG and you can't predict as a user (not even a staff ) what each scroll does result to. Each new scroll re-activate the same thing separate

Dummy scrolling is just to fool yourself in thinking that you've used 'bad luck' on a dummy item while its just the RNG that happens to be rolling on 'fail' on your dummy item.

I mean I can understand you maybe use it for an own myth of luck, but you shouldn't tell people dummy scrolling actually increases the chance of your item to succeed; it doesn't.

EDIT: oh, hi John <3

 

Who are you aiming your post towards?

 

Its more a general post for those that still believe dummy scrolling is a thing in one way or another

 

Okay thanks for clarifying that. I used the same wording (a "thing") with a completely different meaning, so I wanted to make sure your post wasn't a misunderstanding of that.

 

I agree with most things in your post (in fact I said the same things in the post above it) except for one. How is a Topwear DEF 30% a "waste" when used for dummy scrolling. It has equal chances of causing that precious explosion no matter if used as a dummy or not. And it is clearly not a waste of a scroll because the alternatives would be to drop or NPC it. That is per definition wastes of scrolls.

But waste of time, oh yes. I have experience...

 

brah i quoted you on how I know it doesn't increase the chance in my reply that I made just for you
does not guarantee success but you would have failed at that moment@-@

here what i replied to ya:
I agree that it does not increase the percentage it will still remain 50%.. but the reason it works is not that it increases the percentage but it's because you bypassed the fact that you would have got a 1 to 3 at that moment due to luck@-@

 

asmongold does a pretty good job explaining dummy scrolling

 

scroll passing or failing is predetermined by the individual scroll itself?
yes it could be but you wouldn't know that unless you coded the game yourself and it most likely is not the case cause random number generators are individual
That scroll that you failed on your "dummy" item very well could've passed on the item you wanted it to pass on.
yeap that's why i said this method is based on luck if you passed on the dummy unlucky for you...
What are you accomplishing other than wasting your own time?
No one said it would be easy proving the majority wrong.. and this helps me in some ways like improving my English?..

 

By waste of scroll I meant more if you were using a scroll for dummy scrolling that you would otherwise be using elsewhere. Basically what I am trying to say is, use your scrolls on what you want that scroll to actually work with. Don't use a scroll on some random equip as your "sacrifice" to the dummy scrolling method because that is a waste. Plus, who wouldn't want an extra meso from NPCing a scroll?

I just want to be clear. You are NOT proving anybody wrong. You are simply redefining dummy scrolling with your posts, which is fine. But don't think that you are proving something everyone has negated.