Hey guys, I recently got into an interesting conversation with a random person in FM about Chaos Scrolls. They thought that the odds of each result if passed is different, with +5 being harder to get than +1. I was always under the assumption that each result was equal, and there was a 1/11 chance to get any certain result. After doing some googling, i found this and this, which both support that there is normal distribution (the odds for each result get progressively lower as the absolute value of the number increases) and not uniform distribution (each result is 1/11). Is it just me, or is this a brand new idea? Is it possible that Mapleroyals has a differently programmed Chaos Scroll, because from what i've seen most people think its 1/11 for each result. I thought this was pretty interesting because Chaos Scrolls are a pretty big part of Royals, and thought this deserved a discussion. Feel free to add what you guys think, or if im dumb and the answer is obvious . Edit: This is the raw data of Chaos Scroll results after 248 attempts in 2012 GMS. +5(4) +4(4) +3(27) +2(34) +1(52) 0(46) -1(30) -2(24) -3(9) -4(10) -5(8) Edit 2: I was wrong.
Look at the graph of the first one. The link is in his writing. How can you deny around 150 CS at +1, 0, and -1, in relation to 10 +5,-5. I dont think theres question that the data shows normal distribution, its quite clear. My question is that if this is how Chaos Scrolls work in Royals as well.
To be slightly pedantic, I don't know that I'd say you can necessarily confirm that it's NORMAL, but you can definitely say that it's probably not UNIFORM.
I don't know if I agree. If you take the general idea of normal distibution producing a bell graph, it looks to me like a bell shaped graph. If its EXACTLY normal in how the scroll is programmed, im not sure, but it seems to me like its pretty close.
Pretty hard for anyone to know if it's the same or different for Royals, besides the people who code the server. Though I doubt it's much different to be honest... I was thinking about this the other day funny enough, but I didn't put that much thought into it. I always just believed it to be fully random -5 or +5.
Isn't that pretty much what I said though? Looks normal, but can't confirm it based solely on that thread. Almost certainly isn't uniform.
Yeah. You cant be certain, but its leading to yes. I got more of a like no its not normal from your post but after reading it again I agree. I was just reiterating that the data suggests that its normal.
Wondered this too, just ran two simulations using two rng's intended for cryptography and simulation purposes, out of 2000 attempts of using 248 chaos scrolls in each attempt, your effective cumulative result (+106 attack if im not mistaken) is probably statistically significant (fig1/2), assuming your dataset is representative of the actual average outcome of the ms code itself you could be onto something. If you actually have the sequence of scrolling results i.e +5 +2 -1 +0 +1, and not the tally I could try find a hidden markov model in case scrolling is rigged. But more easily if anyone has the source or rng library that maplestory uses I would like to test this out myself, I do remember years ago however someone said that maple used pseudo random parameters such as player count, map count and such to influence the randomness of scrolling, not sure if that was ever sought to be true or not. fig. 1 fig. 2
Nah, I was wrong. Mapleroyals has a differently functioning Chaos Scroll than GMS did. Every outcome is 1/11 if passed.
