It's from my observation for quite long time,as a new source player(after 2017). Example: Daily 2 zak runs,sometimes I can get 3~4 Genesis 20 in a week(when it was like 750m which is lowest in my memory),sometimes I can't even get any single Genesis 20 in a month(when it was like 1.7b which is highest in my memory),what causes it change? Of course,it's something about supply and demand.I assume the demand is constant and depending on how many players(they are the resource of demand),but supply side,why is it inconstant as I mentioned?I don't think it's luck. Here is my idea,the drop rate of anything will be changed(increased/decreased) when gms feel they are going on crazily. It's just my idea,not proven yet.Even if they do,they don't have to tell us. The purpose I make this discussion is wanting to know,how do you think?
...... nanynani the heck Alright alright, because you go even further with your conspiracy theory like you did at FM earlier, I just want to ask. Supposedly the GMs really did change something to the drop rate... question is, why? What's their motive for doing so? What are they trying to achieve by manipulating these skill books drop rate?
The GM's have no influence over item prices. What you are referring to is called RNG and Variance. RNG is like a quarter. It only has two possible outcomes. Heads or tails. However, if you flipped it 10 times, you could theoretically get heads all 10 times. You could then flip it another 10 times and get tails everytime. Flip the coin 1000 times and you will almost certainly wind up with a 50% chance to get heads or tails. For all the times you got 3-4 books a week, you were certainly above the average mean of getting a book. Then you experienced what we call variance. Getting less than what you were getting before brings the average of getting books back in line to what the chance to getting it actually is. Over a long enough time, your chance to getting gen 20 will be the same as most everyone else on the server experiences.
You may also want to consider the factor that maybe there are more new players or existing players with more characters have the capability to kill Zakum, hence increase the supply of Gen20 more than it used to be. And since you assume demand is constant, this will explain why the price drop drastically.
From my experience this game has alot of rng streaks. While hunting for omok pieces i have often found 10 in 30 mins and on the other end found 1 in an hour, same is also true for quest items. In real life I feel that these kinds of streaks are far less likely but here it happens all the time due to the kind of rng system it has. What I have noticed though is that I rarely see ws/cs being gached whereas in the old source an announcement popped up every 5-10 minutes. I wonder why this is the case since apparently the ws/cs rate was “the same “ upon release of the new source and then increased on two separate occasions and still seems to harder to gach.
As this trend,it doesn't look like the conspiracy theory you guys thought I intended to make,and I didn't,honestly.Yes,drop rates of HT books are probabilities,which the situation you are may be sometimes higher,lower than,or equal to.Again,my point is,what causes supply?It really makes interest.
I have to agree with nany, some of the RNG seem tampered. another example is training at ULU 2. If you compare Kages (an undesired item) to Red cravens it seems every inventory the % of GODLY kages are way higher opposed to the % of Godly RC's. (If you want check for yourself) Call me crazy or on drugs but ive thought drop rates being changed was normal.... Reason being if there were thousands of perfect red cravens and gen 20s etc everywhere theyre demand would plummet and the game would be too easy... And we all know what happens when the games too easy. *cough cough big bang*
I farm Ulu1/2 a lot, and I can say with confidence that it really is RNG. Some days I will get more RC than Kage, some other days it's the reverse, and sometimes in between.
