Please can a royals dev answer some questions on probability once and for all?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Heidi, Sep 22, 2019.

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  1. Heidi
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    Heidi GM Intern

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    I am about to go crazy from some of the superstition and myths some people on this server hold. So, can a dev please answer the following questions? It needs to be a dev, because only they'll know if they set different probabilities for different channels, etc :)

    1) Does dummy scrolling increase the chances of a scroll passing?
    2) Does CC'ing increase the chances of a scroll passing?
    3) Does jumping up while scrolling increase the chances of a scroll passing?
    4) Are apple drop rates different on some channels than others?
    5) Does CC'ing after each PQ increase the apple drop rate?

    I'm hoping we can use this thread as our final reference on the subject.
     
    Heidi, Sep 22, 2019
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  2. onekeystory
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    That is a good question :).

    Based on my personal experiences for the dummy scrolling, it decrease my chances of passing. But I guess it's just matter of luck. -.-'
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2019
    onekeystory, Sep 22, 2019
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  3. Poutines
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    Poutines Well-Known Member

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    For number 1, your chances are increased based on statistics.
     
    Poutines, Sep 22, 2019
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  4. Joez
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    Past events don’t change the probability of the next event :’)


    My impression based on my limited understanding of probability is no/no/no/no/no.

    The real question is... are zak/ht books, gach rates, cwk bonus rates changed to manipulate market equilibrium on a regular basis? :’)
     
    Joez, Sep 22, 2019
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  5. Heidi
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    That's well above the average level of probability understanding people seem to hold though!
     
    Heidi, Sep 22, 2019
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  6. sparky95
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    As a dummy scroller, I only do it for the psychological satisfaction after success but I know deep down it's a religion of its own kind. Still works for me 9/10 times :p
     
    sparky95, Sep 22, 2019
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  7. Vector Ho
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    MapleStory as a whole is a luck-based game. The answer for all these 5 questions is NO.
     
    Vector Ho, Sep 22, 2019
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  8. PaddysPub
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    None of the actions you've described have any effect on the drop rates of items or success chances of scrolls. They're all just superstition meant to give the illusion of it working. Just because someone wasted a bunch of 10% scrolls on a garbage item, doesn't mean that the game will be thinking "This time, I'm gonna work just because of all of those failures."

    (Dummy scrolling has that name for a reason.)
     
    PaddysPub, Sep 22, 2019
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  9. Inusama
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    Inusama, Sep 22, 2019
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  10. Capitalist
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    [​IMG]
     
    Capitalist, Sep 22, 2019
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  11. Mimetic
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    If you dance while naked on ch 9 on wednesday while there is full moon, the chances for success increase.

    it worked for my cousin's girlfriend. [:p]
     
    Mimetic, Sep 22, 2019
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  12. taenyfan
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    taenyfan Well-Known Member

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    Exactly! If someone else in MapleRoyals failed a scrolled your chance of succeeding the next scroll increases too. ;)
     
    taenyfan, Sep 22, 2019
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  13. Poutines
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    Nvm, you're right. They're all independent of each other.

    EDIT: After thinking about it a bit more, I believe dummy scrolling does work.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 10, 2021
    Poutines, Sep 22, 2019
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  14. jackeylove
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    This is a good question,I am also curious about it.
     
    jackeylove, Sep 23, 2019
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  15. Heidi
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    I agree with you 100%, but unless you're a server dev (and not "just" a GM) I don't think everybody will take you seriously. Last night, a professional poker player and I were trying to explain probability to somebody, but they resorted to the ad hominem attack that we didn't know cause we weren't the server devs. Not the first time I've encountered this kind of thing in royals, so I felt it was time to get a definitive answer from a royals dev :p
     
    Heidi, Sep 23, 2019
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  16. zoeng
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    zoeng Well-Known Member

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    Not a dev, but I have my scrolling ritual and as Sparky puts it...I just feel better when I'm doing the ritual for scrolling. Plus the results have been "encouraging".

    Mind over matter I suppose.
     
    zoeng, Sep 23, 2019
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  17. Shiyui
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    This thread brought back fond memories of 2016 haha.

    For a very, very, very in depth discussion on dummy scrolling, just read this: https://royals.ms/forum/threads/dummy-scrolling.73527/.

    There's a long, technical video that @Lomo linked that explains the exact faulty psychological belief that dummy scrollers think proves that their dummy scrolling works:



    But basically, you can simplify it like this. Let's say you want to flip a coin and get heads. It's a 50% chance you get heads and 50% chance you get tails. (Yes, I know there's been actual research demonstrating the chance to get heads is slightly more than 50%, but go with my hypothetical). If you intentionally flip a coin over and over, let's say 10 times, specifically to get tails, do you have more than a 50% chance to get heads the 11th time? Of course not. Each event just has a 50% chance to get either result.

    For those who insist on "dev pls confirm," we actually have proof on the 37th post of the above thread:

    [​IMG]

    And also:

    [​IMG]

    John was a staff member from... 2013 to 2017 I believe. One of the very few admins we've ever had and thus someone who had access to the server's source code. So there you go, dev confirmation.

    Andreas was a forum moderator at the time, but his input back then is probably very apt for ending this reply haha.

    [​IMG]
     
    Shiyui, Sep 23, 2019
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  18. Tim
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    1) Does dummy scrolling increase the chances of a scroll passing?
    A: No, nothing in the game code indicates that success rate of scrolls change the more or less you use them.
    2) Does CC'ing increase the chances of a scroll passing?
    A: No, nothing core-game related changes when you change channel or restart the game or anything. The game runs the same with and without you online in any channel. You have no effect on scrolling success rates with your character.
    3) Does jumping up while scrolling increase the chances of a scroll passing?
    A: No, there are no tricks that players can do to impact scrolling success rates.
    4) Are apple drop rates different on some channels than others?
    A: No, all reactors (boxes that contain APQ rewards) are the same in all channels.
    5) Does CC'ing after each PQ increase the apple drop rate?
    A: No, although some people might want to restart their clients between runs to make sure they dont disconnect or encounter delays/graphical glitches.
     
    Tim, Sep 23, 2019
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  19. Heidi
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    Oh wow, I seem to have vague memories of that thread, but only very vague and blurry. Despite my good memory, I might have chosen to blot out memories of people who don't understand probability! Edit: I definitely saw that thread, I even liked one of John's posts on it :o

    Thanks so much for posting this Shiyui, it's the best!
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2019
    Heidi, Sep 23, 2019
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  20. Heidi
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    P.S. best joke during the APQ that prompted me to post this thread seems quite relevant to share right now.

    Somebody tried to tell our anti-probability guru that maybe it does matter, because after all, every night Shiyui and Tim stay up packing the apples into the little boxes, and they must not distribute the apple boxes evenly onto each channel.

    So there you have it.
     
    Heidi, Sep 23, 2019
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