Are current drop rates correct or did APQ drop rate buff -> debuff mess everything up? Ever since then: VL bons have been way more dry confirmed by screenshots of bons in multiple servers HT is way more dry confirmed by 5+ people who daily farm it My NT rates/ other's frag rates are lower I think it may be from lowering apq rates after valentines? If anyone else has data, please post!
Evidence of declining drop rates. Recent runs there's two where not a single thing worth above the VL pot dropped.
Neo Tokyo: In January/ early February in 2025 my rates were: verg 8/17 , Nameless 14/24, Niber 9/24, V2 9/21 March/April/May this year: Verg: 3/14 Nameless 3/5 Niber 6/28 V2 15/29 So verg has dropped frag A from 47% to 21.4% ( partly explained by duct tape, if I include duct tape as a frag A-> it goes to 35% if you don't count frag a and duct tape dropping, or 47% if you count frag a and duct tape dropping same time as separate drops. So more like 35% ? Nameless is 58% vs 60% ( but I only have done 5 during the latter period Niber 37.5 % -> 21.4% V2 ( and I've got really lucky lately 7 out of last 9) 42.85% to 51.7% Also to note: half of my kills from 2025, I didn't even know about drop rate cards, so I wasn't even utilizing drop rate card / my kills were too slow on v2 to meet the timeframe.
Seems like you've just been unlucky on Nibergen. Even if you look at only that one (which, statistically is already cherry picking) you'd get a Fisher's p-value of 0.23 so not significant. Same for Verg, p is 0.26. Across all bosses you went from 40/86 to 27/76 which is a p value of 0.20. So yes you've been either lucky before or are unlucky lately but it's not enough to conclude that the droprate did change. Of course, you cannot prove that it did not change with these numbers either but unless it was in the patch notes I'd think it wouldn't change without mention. Edit: people going dry are also more likely to think something is wrong so unless many many people across the whole server report this and everyone you know too I wouldn't think too much about this.
Many people are going dry especially in VL which is why I'm making this thread. 40/86 to 27/76 is a significant drop off especially when looking at the column on the right for card 50% drop rate buff. I also made this thread for others to post on and there will be other people posting horrendous data. I also posted 17 VL runs where it's clear the last 2 months have been way more dry than prior.
The boss I farmed had quite low drop rate of a certain item which I started shortly after end of Valentine. For the last 1-2 weeks has been normal to good so, rng?
