Some prices comparison: APRs go for just 13m nowadays- as opposed to 16m-17m a few months ago. CS\WS go for 500m+ nowadays- as opposed to 450m (and even lower) a few months ago. I thought it might be related to the recent events, where people got 16K NX each day for voting, and also much more NX during the christmas event (mom and dad quest reward), but as you may have guessed, economics is not my area of expertise. I'm pretty sure there are some signs that indicate the future market prices, though. So, is it possible to tell when to expect an inflation or deflation in market prices? Any thumb rules? Thanks.
Writing this intro after I spent 10 minutes extra on the toilet to write this. Here are some examples of assumptions and predictions of the market that I have. They could be wrong, because no one can actually predict the market. Of course the 16k NX bonuses will change the prices of APR. It is supply and demand. For the valentine's event that just started, it says that APQ bonuses stage will get a buff. Assuming this to be a increased drop rate of apples, it would be fair to conclude that apple prices will drop for the next months. Some other examples: New earrings are added in the new update, they have 7 slots and all-stat clean. This might lead to a drop in price of elemental earrings, maybe even all earrings. Broken glasses from LPQ just got buffed, might reduce price of raccoon mask/specs. The last examples are just speculation, and will (if they occur) evolve slowly. Whereas the apple-example will (if it occurs) be evolving at a higher pace. White scrolls drop in price after easter events, since you are able to gain a treasure map which drops it. Supply . Demand. Another example that just happen. Price of dinner sets during the christmas event. You could easily sell them for 8m the first week. You can see many people in FM selling. In January though, FM is crowded with people selling sets for 3m. Supply. Demand. ULU1 nerf. When they nerfed spawn and drop-rate of ULU1, and increased potion prices. It should lead to less mesos in the market, this would drop prices of everything in the long run. But remember there is a lot of other things going on simulationusly, so you might not be able to observe it over a short time periode. Amount of players online: Since COVID happened there was 3k players on last easter. And it held a steady 2k+ for a long time. More players-> more NX-> more APR-> APR cost less. But keep in mind, more players also leads to a higher demand of APR. So this could counter my last argument. But it would be two separate arguments you would have to consider and conclude which one outweighs the other. Yes. You can definitely predict market prices, the problem is getting it right. In the real world some are billionaires, others are broke. Some can predict well or get lucky. Others are bad at predictions or are just unlucky. People short sold game stop shares because it seemed reasonable. They still lost billions. I believe you already answered your own post. Your assumptions of why APR dropped in price is reasonable, keep thinking that way and you will hopefully be able to predict the market in your favor. Last tip: Patience.
Be aware that some prices really can vary by 100-300m depending on the Item and the high demand on it. (Can change weekly!!!) 13 ATT WG was like 300-500m worth but, now its almost nothing... Items higher then 500m+~ except WS and CS get sold mostly really slow. 100 % Event Scrolls are mostly cheaper during the Event of course. Always double check ur prices, and mostly the Forum ist overpriced. Watch out for really cheap offers per Smega or using an owl
One other thing to consider is the cause and effect of what happens to prices of certain items in the market on top of supply and demand. Using the example of the influx of apples and lower apple prices, what do you think is a consequence of this increase in supply? More people are more likely to go bossing in the near future because apples are essentially free. What does this mean? Likely an increase in boss drops (MW20 / GEN20 / GEN30 namely). Another thing to think about is the timing of holidays. When people have more time on their hands, they have more time to play. This could mean more farming is done, more leeching is done, more work put into new characters. As a result, prices of certain items could go up (weapons, gear, APR's). Of course, this is only my opinion and predictions of the market. I could be wrong, but I think these are all reasonable assumptions to be made.
Well, if we could predict the market prices we would make an unlimited profit. I believe that the key to royals market prices is APRs and nx. I think that there is now less new players, and most of them is veterans, which boss daily, and not need much APRS. Hopefully soon the prices will go back up.
