White Scrolls Gacha Chances Table

Hello everyone,
If you were ever wondering if the odds were ever in your favor while gaching, well you came to the right place.
With the help of this thread, it is possible to calculate that the chance of getting a White Scroll from gacha is about 0.6%.
From there, using a simulation, I made a table which tells what are the odds of getting White Scrolls depending on how many gacha tickets you have acquired:



I've marked in green the cells which represent a situation that is 'in favor of the gambler' (50% or more chance of success).
So From the data above, in order to have less psychological pain when gaching I would suggest that is it better to gacha having at least 4 stacks (as opposed to, for example, gaching 4 times with 1 stack at a time).

Remember that the purpose of the suggestion here is to make the gaching experience less psychologically painful in a statistical manner and no matter what we'll do the odds of getting a single White Scroll stays the same.

Good luck!

 

i barely have the self control to save 1 stack, ur telling me i have to save 4??

jk, nice work! :3

 

Now we just gotta figure out whats going on when same people get 4+ WS within 30second-1min, and for this to occur to at least 1 person every single day.

 

I gached 500 tickets and got 0 ws so I'm questioning where you got these numbers.

 

Unfortunately you were just EXTREMELY unlucky.
The probability for that to happen can be calculated using Bernoulli trial:

So about 4.93% chance for that to happen, extremely unlikely but possible nevertheless
Since 500 tickets are more or less 14 stacks of 35 tickets you can see that it matches the probability of getting at least one scroll which is 95% (95% + 4.93% =~ 100% so the calculation is right).

 

To make sense of it one would need to know just how many gachapon tickets are being used overall. However, I too raise my eyebrow at the sheer amount of "back to back" jackpot hitting that occurs (not just CS/WS.) Might just be a case of confirmation bias, if that's the term I'm looking for, but RnG is always perplexing.

 

Probably a mixture of luck and very fast clicking since it is possible to spend about 10 tickets in 3-4 seconds if you place the gacha chat box right on top of the gacha npc

 

I spent 150 k of cash

got 135 tickets

at the beginning it was good because I got 3 white scrolls

but with the passage of time he began to drop from 3-2 2-1 1-0

rng what's up so bad luck I have

give up white scrolls

there was always a troll in his store he sold it cheaper than I did

I mean

520 - 515 - 510 - 505

505 was the last time I got from gachapon

now I'm taking out the chaos scroll

I hope this one doesn't disappoint me

 

Cumulative record of my brother and I doing Mushroom shrine , ~10,000 ticket sample total over 4years.

The rate was around 0.65%+-0.05

I don't really have the proofs but my thread history has one post with proof of a smaller sample.

 

Which means that it is confident to say that the 0.6% observation is true and within the statistical error
So the table stand correct

 

TIM DROPPING HINTS! WE GOTTA DUMMY GACHA AT TRASH PLACE LIKE ELLINIA TO GET GOOD KERNING ITEMS!

 

Updating that I followed my advice and gacha'ed twice using 4 stacks each time.
On the first time I got a single white scroll and on the second time I got two white scrolls, so I guess it's working ^^

 

Update

the chaos scroll gives good profits than the white scroll

keep my rng high and don't go down to zero

 

300 tickets spent this weekend .. zero WS/CS

 

Have you angered the RNG gods lately?

 

Idk .. maybe I should pray

 

So according to that table, let's say someone uses 8 ticket stacks and doesn't get a white scroll, if i use 1 stack in the same exact gachapon right after, is there a 85% chance i will get a white scroll?
I know the statistics work individually per ticket and the chances of getting a white scroll per ticket is less than 1%. Im just curious about your opinion in regards of what i just said.

 

Its really just RNG in my opinion.

I did 35 tickets everyday for 46 days and got 1 cs/ws out of those 46 x 35 tickets. (Don't ask about my luck)

But when I did 960k nx at once I got 10cs/ws.

So its best if you just hoard your nx and just spam it all at once for a better chance of rng.