Seems like I am not getting my 15th orb on a couple of characters. The only piece of evidence that I am able to capture is from one character as follows: I cant check my number of submissions at the moment but for this character it's definitely more than 15 times and you could see from the chat box that I just got my latest orb from a normal submission (about an hour or two ago from the server time in the photo) and not the 15th submission, and I only have 1 orb in my inventory, and I haven't redeemed anything from O-pongo as you can see that I still have the 15 gelt and all the other one time redeems still in tact. Not sure when my 15th submission was, I don't remember it, but most likely few days ago. Not sure if this is the pattern but maybe it could be that all my characters that completed the 15th submission last year and gotten it last year, happened to not get it this year after this year's 15th submission. Because only the character that did not do the event last year got the guaranteed 15th submission this year.
Other affected characters are IGN: Vlenn, Vergent, Raiichi Estimated time for 15th submission on all characters is a little difficult for me to pinpoint, I can only know that it is the past few days