Instead of randomly fixing a price in there, for unfinished items with only 5 beginning slots to scroll, i usually price them slightly lower than its statistical price. Assuming market rates of Earring Dex 10%-1m to 1.5m and 30%- 9m to 10m. +1/4slot = 25m-30m (Just like a 3att4slot wg) +2/3slot = 110m-140m +3/2slot = 360m-440m <--- This is your price range. Anymore than 500m and smarter people would rather self scroll considering the abundance of 30% earr dex in the FM atm, and the relatively low base cost to scroll earrings that are from an NPC in henesys. Also, if you price it higher than 500m, effectively you're being kinda irrational because that means you're not taking any of the risks and the buyer takes all the risks to make it 13dex, at a high cost. I dont think any buyer who has that kind of money would pay that much (>440m) for it at 9dex/2slot. A fully scrolled price of 700m for 13dex was when 30% earr dex were much rarer in the past, with smaller player bases and thus less gachapon scrolls going around. The story is no longer the same, but inflation is still there so it can still be argued for a price of 600m-700m... If you get it to 13dex. But at its current state your earrings are nowhere near that price. Its the last few slots where things go wrong.
Thanks @rustle for your explanation, it's honestly quite insightful and something this P/C section could use more of. --- Personally, I price unfinished equips based on potential and the probability of hitting that. In this example, anyone who buys the earrings will probably finish it with 2 60% scrolls. Which breaks down to: 36% chance of passing both, i.e. 700 mil product 48% chance of passing 1, i.e. 120 mil product 16% chance of passing 0, i.e. 50 mil product Assuming DEX 60 is 6 mil each, the expected value of these earrings should be: (0.36 x 700 + 0.48 x 120 + 0.16 x 50) + 6 x 2 = 330 mil I'll humbly concede that my previous P/C was way off, but I'm also a lot more risk averse, i.e. I'd rather take a sure payout over a gamble that has an equal expected value. So for me to take that gamble (buy the earrings), I'd pay a lot less than its expected value. But obviously not every player is like this, and I'll be sure to recognize that going forward.
The problem is you're using DEX 60's. If you change that to DEX 70's, you'll see right off the bat that since 0.7*0.7=~0.5, and 13 DEX=700 mil, that it has an expected value of around 350 mil. And that's if 70's had a 100% destroy-if-fail rate. Given the fact that high variance is (almost) always worse than low variance, the actual value of it would be slightly lower than expected value, hence my evaluation of around 300 mil.
No one in their right mind will 60% that. Because if 1 slot fails, you might as well 'get rid' of that earring. I've made a few 12 and 13s before. Never have i 60%ed it. Simply because you'd ruin the entirety of your investment with 1 failed scroll. Its better to take that risk with 70%s. I've blown many of these. But never regretted. Cause it made sense You got the Expected Value part right. You cannot sell an item for its EV/statistical price. Although i took that into account with a less than financial cutdown and more rational approach. Also, geistes is partially wrong. There is no fixed valuation. It goes by demand, and right now, 2 or less 13dexs are floating on the market. So even though the OP's earring is incomplete, it has demand value and you can look for a premium to your price. If people are desperate enough, they will gamble at a higher risk for a lower premium. However, just dont overdo it like i mentioned. That price range i gave u of 360m-450m was more than enough, with a profit cut factored for your effort/time. Making one of these bad boys requires large amount of 30%s and most shops only sell 1 to 2. So there is a time commitment here for this earring. It took me bout 2weeks to collect 50x 30% earring dex that were fair/market price. And you should be paid for that. No one is able to give u a fixed price for it. Unless there are more in the market. Thats the truth. To me. 450m is if u got it to 11dex/1slot. I would never pay more than the 360m i gave u as the minimum range for a 9dex/2slot. In fact maybe even lower since its easier for me with a considerable budget to fall on. But thats just me. And the fact im not desperate for it EDIT: So it all depends on whether u want to wait for that desperate buyer and sell it high. Or sell it for a fairly reasonable price, whereby 330m is still not bad i guess. I always go for the desperate, when it comes to rarely sold items.
Items aren't valued based on what you spent on them. They're valued based on what others spend on them. If you 100% an SCG, doesn't mean it'll be worth 400 mil. Likewise, your time/effort/money spent when you made one of these isn't considered in the value. A 13 DEX will never sell for more than 800 mil, so these should never sell for over 350. However, some people don't understand math as I've found out in my time playing this game, so you can probably still sell it for around 400. EDIT: There is, however, also an argument to be made for using another 30%. A 14 DEX earring would likely fetch close to 1.5 bil, I would guess, and with a 0.3*0.7=0.21 chance, it's probably just as good of an option as 70ing both slots.
Math is indeed not their strong suit. Ive seen a lot of stuff sold for the weirdest of prices. Haha. Thats what im getting at. There's no way someone will see a difference in an item like that at 350m and 380m. It wont matter to them, they cant see the difference, and even if they do, its not even much... Im assuming someone wanting to finish this has the mesos to blow, which is also taking into account the demographic of your potential buyers. BUT. EDIT: That is true only to a certain extent. Not to be confused here. My Non-Bid (my store) forces ppl to pay my price, and they can only buy at that price. So in essence, i created a number for what others are spending on. Many people will not pay, that is true. But i just need that 1 guy man. That 1 person. Haha. And then i would have created what is valued based on what others spend on them. I do not even bother negotiating or taking offers, because i dont care about how others value it, because i know my prices (and its not just statistical value or what i spent, but what i value based on numerous factors). Its abit of an issue, since most people would prefer faster cash than to wait. But my method does work. Also, i try to keep towards being the lowest price in FM for items that are more prevalent, which really shouldnt be the case in this post, since its a different type of item, an 'unfinished item' that no one else is selling. In fact, this should just go to an auction bid. And it would resolve any issues here. The P/C for this would have just been an estimator, since like i said, no fixed price.
It works, but you also have to remember that time is money. That time that you don't have the money for, is time that you could be spending that money to be making more money. (Also some of your prices are wack crazy. Just thought I'd mention that.)
And yet ive sold everything on my thread more than once. Just one look at that sales history. I know when to raise my prices and when to lower it. But i doubt u can call me whack crazy since by & large, NOT a single item is above its statistical price. Nor is there a comparably lower price in FM? You're welcome to try and give me an audit here and prove me wrong. But you cant, since you dont know my pricing formula And you will never be a client for those items, nor are you my target market if thats the case Well since we're steering off the topic on 13dex earrs here, ima end here. You're welcome to debate on this in-game or something with me. Cheers!
