Just started an xbowman, on my main I had a 102 attack clean dark neschere (which I think is 1 off from perfect WA?) Anyways, just passed 3x30's on it. So its 117 WA 3 dex w/ 4 slots left. Should I just keep using 30's? The scrolls are cheap, but idk how easy it is to find decent xbows to scroll.
Sorry, I'm not too good at scrolling. Something someone told me was that failing a 60% will make the next 30% have a higher chance of passing, and if you mean things like that, where the probability is somehow affected, I don't have an answer. I can, however, help you with probability, whether you know it or not, I'm saving you the work . The chance of passing three 30% scrolls in a row is 27/1000, around 2.7%. Lucky you! Lets say you want to pass that next four 30%s, given your success already, that has a 81/10000 chance, or 0.81% chance. Here are the probabilities for exclusively using 30% scrolls. Passing x4 30% scrolls ~ 0.81% chance. Passing x3 30% scrolls ~ 7.56% chance. Passing x2 30% scrolls ~ 17.64% chance. Passing x1 30% scrolls ~ 41.16% chance. Passing x0 30% scrolls ~ 24.01% chance. Here are the probabilities you will BOOM it if you using only 30% scrolls. Chance you'll boom the 4th scroll ~ 15% chance. Chance you'll boom the 5th scroll ~ 12.75% Chance you'll boom the 6th scroll ~ 10.8375% Chance you'll boom the 7th scroll~ Around 9.11% Chance with no booms ~ 52.20% chance Note that these are the chances that you have BOOM, SAFE / BOOM, SAFE / SAFE / BOOM, and SAFE /SAFE / SAFE / BOOM from the start. After every scroll you pass, the next has a 15% chance to boom, but given you already passed three scrolls and have four slots left, these are the chances that a specific scroll will boom. I might have messed up my math on this part, but you probably won't use all 30% scrolls anyways. I'm gonna assume you'd use 60% scrolls otherwise, so here are the probabilities if you use only 60% scrolls. Passing x4 60% scrolls ~ 12.96% chance. Passing x3 60% scrolls ~ 34.56% chance. Passing x2 60% scrolls ~ 34.56% chance. Passing x1 60% scroll ~ 34.56% chance. Passing x0 60% scrolls ~ 2.56% chance. If you use x1 30% and x3 60% scrolls. I'm gonna assume you use the 30% scroll first because most people do that anyways. Passing x1 30% and x3 60% scrolls ~ 6.48% chance. Passing x1 30% scrolls and x2 60% scrolls ~ 12.96% chance I think. Passing x1 30% scrolls and x1 60% scroll ~ 8.64% chance I think. Passing x1 30% scrolls and x0 60% scrolls ~ 1.92% chance. Passing x0 30% and x3 60% scrolls ~ 15.12% chance. Passing nothing ~ 4.48% chance. Definitely not gonna go through all the 30% / 60% combinations because I'm lazy, but you get the drift. This also assumes that MAPLEROYALS RNG is accurate, so when there is a 30% scroll, there will definitely be a 30% chance that it will pass. Also assuming you don't use White Scrolls. Or you can find a better weapon, someone above I think listed the stats, but I'm not 100% sure. If Mapleroyals RNG isn't that accurate, then everything I said might be invalid or is approximate. These probabilities are just something to guide you in case you want to risk things or not, or test your luck. But you had a 2.7% chance on getting what you already have. I hope I was helpful. Good luck!
Whats a xbowman? (You should ideally get perfect nescheres, 30% them till 3 or so land then WS/10% the rest of the slots, so at this point Edit: since you started with a less than perfect one, I'd just 60% the rest of the slots, and wait to WS/10% till you do so with a perfect Neschere like XANARK said.
The problem with these kind of calculations is that you are calculating the probability of a sequence. So even if the sequence has a small chance of succes, each individual scroll still has the 30% or 60% chance to work.
TLDR - Scroll's success rate is an independent event from how many you've passed/failed before. But then again, there are people who will do dummy scrolling.
Yeah darn i had misinfo, i went on BBB and it gave the attack of a dark neschere as 98 and i thought maybe they were all 98 unless godly. I thought i had a really good one to begin with. Since crossbow 30s are like 1m a piece i might just throw a couple more at it, since theres not too much of a loss now.
Yeah, that's basically right. It's calculating the chance that, for example, you will get any combination of three 60% successes and one 60% failure. Each individual 60% scroll should have exactly that, a 60% chance of success, but given you're going on a four 60% scroll streak, then these are the chances for these certain number of successes/failures. But after every 60% success or failure, the chance of the next collective three, two, or one being failures/successes changes (so like, if you have one success, the chance of next scrolls being SSF (success/success/failure) will be different from the end result SSSF, but the next scroll should still have a 60% success rate. So if you pass a 60% scroll, the chance of passing three more isn't 12.96%, it's actually a lot more. I hope this isn't confusing. The thing is though, IDK if dummy scrolling works. A lot of people who are experienced scrollers told me it works, but IDK if it actually affected the outcome. I'm not really a scroller but if someone can shed light on this that'd be great.
