Here's a small spreadsheet with statistics on red envelope outcomes! Summary: With 584 tickets and a conversion ratio of 1nx::5000mesos, each red ticket is worth about 653,499 mesos in the long run. Will be updating daily-ish. P.S. If anyone wants to sell tickets for 653,499 each, add Myoni UPDATED 3/2/2018
1) 574 tickets is too small of a sample size to properly deduce EV. 2) Tickets will naturally be worth more than the EV due to the chance at jackpot
I don't know what you've been studying but it ain't economics. You forgot many elements that affect the price of an item.
@resum, I don't agree with your 2nd statement. That's only true if you get 'lucky' with a small number of tickets. Over enough samples, your average earnings will approach the expectation value. Also, the characteristic percentage is about 1% here (chance of 5k nx) so a sample size of 500 tickets gives you decent (but not great) confidence. @Crowley, Yeah I've never had an economics course, but what other elements would affect the price of these envelopes? Their value is solely the value of the prize inside (I guess you could put a value on the 'excitement' of opening them but at the end of the day that doesn't even matter).
But the value of excitement does matter. Why do you think people go to casinos knowing full well its in the houses favor?
@Credits, I think if people knew how much in favor the casinos were, they would probably gamble a lot less. As for the tickets, the excitement value is different for each person. This chart isn't telling you that every ticket run is going to give you an average return of 650k each, it's telling you that with a large number of tickets, you're expected an average return of 650k each. You could get lucky in a 5-ticket run and get a 5,000NX card, but that doesn't mean each ticket should be worth 5m
The price of convenience and excitement are worth atleast 150,000 mesos. If your price is correct, then 800k per envelope makes complete sense. You'd be surprised at how much people enjoy clicking an npc 500 times. This is MapleRoyals, not real life. People enjoy clicking 2 buttons for 6 hours. We do know that people are willing to pay for excitement considering most end game players have no thrill left in the server beyond gachapon. Useful thread though, it definitely helps to set the bar for how much I'll gain or lose on average.
It's supply and demand. I dont go to casinos because i know full well it's in the houses' favor. This analysis helps me decided either to sell it >650k or take my chances if no one wants to buy it >650k. Thanks! Definitely looking for more data
People who are gamblers will always buy, so the price will naturally settle in above the EV. Also there is utility to NX that can't be quantified by Mesos, namely the ability to Gach. Which attracts said gamblers even more. If you look at this thread: https://royals.ms/forum/threads/red-envelope-rates.116414/ people have gotten 100k higher EV than you on a sample of 2k.
> Summary: With 584 tickets and a conversion ratio of 1nx::5000mesos, each red ticket is worth about 653,499 mesos in the long run. Some people value NX over mesos because they enjoy going to gachapon.
What about the tax you lose when you sell each envelope? What about the opportunity cost of having to sit in FM and sell envelopes instead of farming more? What about the inevitable demise of this server which renders this exchange of envelopes an inherently futile endeavor to begin with?
See I took a gamble and bought 350 tix for around 250M, With those 300 tix I ended up making 40ishK nx went to gach with it and got a 4 att PGC so I made my money back yes, that being said I got crap for items otherwise, and while i did get about 40K nx and 100M back in pure mesos it wasnt the best gamble to make as I could have simply gotten 100M in mesos and nothing else. But a gamble is a gamble.
The main reason gambling has its appeal is due to the ppl's biases towards positive skewness in distribution as explained in behavioural science. Majority of the people are keen on things that gives them a chance of a large windfall for a small price. This is why people continue to buy lottery/raffles. Another good example that ev is never the sole consideration in decision making is if there is the situation of a reverse lottery, you consistently make a small gain but have a small chance of a huge loss, but the ev is positive, would you still take it? Another thing to keep in mind that you will only skew towards the intended probability over a large sample size. Since most people are only converting small amounts of tickets, it's really up to luck, and most people tend to overestimate their luck. I believe there are definitely more reasons that is involved in deciding the right price, but I will not go into that. This is a super summarized version of a very well researched topic. What I'm trying to say is that even when information/odds are clear, people will still end up making emotional decisions that is align with their biases, which is why casinos are able to make a profit even when the odds are clearly known to be in their favour.
Gambler's fallacy is a very interesting topic though! For anyone interested: a study, or entertaining without the jargon (fun to listen to while grinding).
If you calculate with an NX rate of 1:5400, which is reasonable since AP resets sell for 17M these days, your EV is 754684.058. Which makes the 800k figure that people buy at much more reasonable considering the utility of NX in account and entertainment of opening!
