Hi, my name is John I quit around October of 2021 when I started my degree, as I had no spare time to game. I had a shortcut to the royals website on my phone main screen, so out of habit I kept voting almost daily for most of that time. Just finished my 2nd year of university and decided to come back while I have time (It's summer break here), and lo and behold: Used all but 100 tickets in mushroom shrine hoping for CSs, and got 27 of them. I was actually surprised, as I remembered every 100 tickets giving 1 CS on avg, but I was seemingly wrong. Was gacha nerfed?
You can do the rough math, people normally trade 1cs/ws for 50~ apr, which is about 150k nx, which equates to a cs/ws pull rate at about 0.65~%.
Calculated CS rates are ~200 tickets per CS - you have actually made more then the average Enjoy the win
I'm gonna give my insight here. Hopefully it will give you a benefit on how to look at gacha differently that before. I never bother with gacha Reasons: 1.Just like in poker, "it all evens out" If we take the 2 year break scenario and make it into x2 same scaenario, 2 years each, In theory you could have gotten on the bad side and get like 10 CS out of all those 4000 tickets, And then on the second 2 year attempt you could have gotten 40 cs..... What I mean by this, that in the long long long run if you gacha for years, It all evens out thanks to probability. Which leads me to no.2 2.Therefore, comparing it to selling APR [or better now, Enchanted scrolls, you get more money per 1k nx with this nowdays] is pretty balanced, So no matter which method you choose, APR selling or gacha, in a long run [years] it will be the same. Which bring me to the conculsion of "Saving time". Time = Potential money I prefer APR selling, cuz it takes to no effort and time, Than managing all my Gacha rewards, P/C often to see that im not off, Posting smegas for self store adv, Inv managment, Market analzing, Paying attention to chat for potentinal buyers, All this leads to a lot of "Stress" and most importantly, "Time". With that time I prefer going to my bish and leech , 60m - 70m per hour. Now some ppl like Merching, I wish I had the same love for it as them, I envy them [not sarcastic at all] So they go for gacha no matter what, They enjoy the thrill of Market analzying, Nothing will change their opinion, And might profit more from their "merching" skills that pure apr selling, Who knows. NOW If I were a new player[veterans can do it to if they want], I would utilize the gacha probability once. Since we talking about a probability system that in a long run "evens out" in theory. You can utilize the system once in short term for profit and never touch gacha ever again, Otherwise you gonna even out the "profit" with big loss if you dont stop. It's tricky and it's tied to gambling and your self discpline for "knowing" [no one ever knows tbh] when to stop. As a new player I would gacha none stop x4 stacks of x35 tickets [57% chance for 1 WS] I would calculate my profits each time and stop at some lucky insane profit. Example: First x4 stacks of x35 gacha nets me with 0. Second x4 stack nets me with 2 [evens out]. Third x4 stack I get 0 again [sadge]. This goes on and on, Until I hit the jackpot and get 3 lucky stacks one after another, 1 stack gives me 3 cs, Second stack gives me 2, And third stack gives me 5. Here I would decide to stop, After a long time of lucky and unlucky stacks, I hit 3 in a row with good results wich nets me in a profit. I can get greedy and see what I get with 4th stack after that, who knows I might get 0 or some insane "luck" and get another 5. If it were me, I would have stopped, 10 cs for 3 stacks of x35 gachas is insanely good. [300%+~ profit from the regular probability] In term of probability this example is tied to probability by itself, Too lazy to do the math, But lets say the 3 good tacks in a row I just presented is somewhere like 0.2% to happen. So it might happen in a long long time of gacha, or short term, It's all up to you when to stop. Dont touch gacha again, Otherwise you even out the profit later on with a lose, As I said earlier. and trasnfer to APR selling.
That's actually a very interesting take, Iappreciate you taking the time to write that out! I'm also no a huge fan on merching and market analysis, so next time I have a tonne of nx I might just sell APR's!
