Alice bought 7 Scroll for Dagger for 60% Alice is going to scroll her 50m clean dagger Alice wants insurance so that if 3 or more scrolls FAIL, she gets the dagger market price back suppose you were a popular trusted merchant and could pull off this scroll insurance scheme imagine hundreds of people like alice with 50m daggers using 7 60% scrolls With 7 60% scrolls being used on a 50m dagger, what would be break-even price of this one-time pre-scroll insurance? If 3 or more fail they get the 50m back, so how much would you charge hundreds of people so that you make a bit of a profit even if you figure in paying back the dagger price everytime 3+ scrolls fail? What if we do like 2 30% + 5 60%, combos like that. They pay first, if scrolls succeed nothing happens, if enough scrolls fail they get money back. The challenge is to price it as such so the insurance company can make mass profits. ----------------------------------------------------------- BONUS ASSIGNMENT: your scroll insurance company is now successful and you now want to expand into failed HT runs (buyer died, buyer dc/ed), what would you price insurance for 180M VIP HTP as? EDIT: scratch that bonus that would heavily depend on the attackers
Already a thing with WSing: https://royals.ms/forum/threads/aka...-etc-gen-30-mw20-white-scroll-service.199256/ Alice wants insurance so that if 3 or more [60%] scrolls FAIL, she gets the dagger market price back https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial with probability of success = 0.6, 7 trials, 5 successes (first point where it's <2 fails). Cumulative probability P(X >= 5) = 0.4199 (or cumulative probability P(X < 5) = .58) Therefore, there's a 42% chance of her passing enough for no insurance payout, and a 58% chance of getting a payout. At a payout of 50m, she's getting an average of 29m back, which is the break-even point. Combos with mixed scrolls would likely be done on each individual percent, if someone wanted to do so.
For only 60% scrolls, the math is quite simple. The probability that 4 or more work is a binomial distribution with n=7 and p=60%, which gives about 71% of at least 4 successes. Disregarding the scroll prices, if the dagger is 50m that would mean the insurer pays back on average 29% of 50m, which is 14.5m. So to make a small profit, insurance would have to be over 14.5m. This ofc also depending on the rest value, so how much the 'failed' dagger would be worth. Btw, would the insurer still require the scroller to scroll all 7 slots if the first 3 fail? What if 3/4 or 3/5 fail? With different scroll combinations such as 30%, the maths are slightly more complicated as you have to keep track of multiple things: 1. Do you want to total bonus stats or simply succesful number of scrolls? 2. You have to keep track of the chance that the item booms. In this case, you could write out the maths but it would simpler to just run a million simulations in my opinion. Either way each scenario needs to be looked at individually but it is possible to calculate.
ok so insurance amount would have to be calculated for each scenario, not feasible at all, just a pipe dream~
Unless you just make an excel spreadsheet or whatever to do the calculations for you. Excel should be able to do something rudimentary that would work with just using `PERMUT` and `COMBIN` functions. A Python script could work just as well with perhaps more extensibility for the tougher cases you're proposing.
