Simulators have a 10% chance of blowing up an item I have heard, but the odds of what happened to me was 1% and it happened to me so I am highly suspicious that item crafting is bugged in Crimsonwood. I am intimidated in trying to craft the item again and am very frustrated that this happened to me. I attempted to craft a crimson arcanon from the exchange quest. I spent many hours looking for the materials. when I tried crafting it blew up. Today I tried crafting it again and the same result happened, the item blew up. considering this is a 1% chance of happening, I am around 80% sure this is bugged. I feel like the BOOM chance is much higher than 10% like it should be. Attempt #1 Attempt #2
assuming there's a 1% chance that the stims are bugged to boom 100% of the time, you'd need to boom at least three in a row with 10% probability to claim that the likelihood that the stims are truly bugged is greater than 80%. Assuming there's a 1% chance the stims are bugged to boom 100% of the time, the likelihood that the stims are truly bugged based solely on booming two in a row with 10% probability is only slightly greater than 50% (100/199)
This is just bad luck. I remember when testing the stimulator usage for this NPC, I had to spam create about 20-30 of these for it to boom for me. That must be painful considering the amount of resources required, so I feel for your loss.