Not Bug Crimson Arcanon crafting suspicion

Discussion in 'Closed' started by Yamada Denki, Sep 29, 2020.

  1. Yamada Denki
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    Yamada Denki Well-Known Member

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    Simulators have a 10% chance of blowing up an item I have heard, but the odds of what happened to me was 1% and it happened to me so I am highly suspicious that item crafting is bugged in Crimsonwood. I am intimidated in trying to craft the item again and am very frustrated that this happened to me.

    I attempted to craft a crimson arcanon from the exchange quest. I spent many hours looking for the materials. when I tried crafting it blew up. Today I tried crafting it again and the same result happened, the item blew up. considering this is a 1% chance of happening, I am around 80% sure this is bugged. I feel like the BOOM chance is much higher than 10% like it should be.

    Attempt #1
    attempt 1.png

    Attempt #2
    attempt 2.png
     
  2. sparky95
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    sparky95 Donator

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    Isn't this like passing 2x 10% scrolls in a row?
     
  3. whitemagejames
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    whitemagejames Well-Known Member

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    assuming there's a 1% chance that the stims are bugged to boom 100% of the time, you'd need to boom at least three in a row with 10% probability to claim that the likelihood that the stims are truly bugged is greater than 80%. Assuming there's a 1% chance the stims are bugged to boom 100% of the time, the likelihood that the stims are truly bugged based solely on booming two in a row with 10% probability is only slightly greater than 50% (100/199)
     
  4. Yamada Denki
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    Yamada Denki Well-Known Member

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    Think of it as failing 2 90% scrolls in a row.
     
  5. Inusama
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    Inusama Donator

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    This is like those reports where someone grinds in a map for 5 minutes and doesn't get a drop.
     
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  6. Matt
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    Matt Administrator

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    This is just bad luck. I remember when testing the stimulator usage for this NPC, I had to spam create about 20-30 of these for it to boom for me.

    That must be painful considering the amount of resources required, so I feel for your loss.
     
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  7. Relmy
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    Relmy Donator

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    Ure describing power stance and im not joking
     

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