"Safe" meso gambling?

What's up guys! I need to speak with the hardcore gamblers out there. I'm talking about godly scrolling and Chaos scrolling. I want to know your strategies for scrolling and how you make meso off of it. I currently have 1.9b meso and I want to invest some of it into gambling. I want to find out how I can "safely gamble". What are some cheap gears I can scroll with high payouts? Should I chaos? Please help feed my addiction. I'm terrible at scrolling and I've heard some ppl have strategies when scrolling . share please <3 .

P.S. I'm trying to make meso to make or buy a perfect Concerto

 

It's not gambling if it's safe. And if anyone knows a way to consistently profit from scrolling, they probably won't share it so easily.

... Also I'd double or even triple those funds before looking in the direction of a chaos scroll. Those are risk incarnate, along with being behind the unpredictable 60% barrier.

 

After playing this game for 10 years and being superstitious about scrolling strategies I'm heavily convinced that strategies are not possible with scrolling. I tried failing 3 60%'s in a row, succeed one later. It's sadly not how it works. I have even managed to fail 8 chaos scrolls in a row once. But also 3 10%s succeeded in a row once. It's really based on luck. I know some people who spend 2.1 billion mesos on scrolling a red craven with 30% scrolls and white scrolls. That's how you make money. Take that 30% risk. If you fail. You lose a little amount. 2.1 at most if you go all in. But if you do manage to succeed on the first e.g. Red Craven you can easily get 8 bil profit.

 

Like others have said, scrolling is pretty much all luck, so even if you calculate numbers, understand that it may not go in your favor. Any chance, regardless how small is still a chance after all. But I understand it might be fun for some people to work out the math, so if you're interested in working out scrolling math you should read some material on introductory discrete math. Stuff like permutations, combinations and probability. It's been a while since I've done math problems like that, but I find it interesting too.

Here's a simple example.

Let's you wanna try scrolling SCGs to merch and you want to use 60%s or 70%s. Let's say you spent ~1.7B on getting 5 clean SCGs and to break close to even you want at least one at 15att to sell for around 1.5 - 1.6B hopefully.

Landing 5 60%s in a row is around an 8% chance. (0.6 ^ 5)
Landing 5 70%s in a row is around a 17% chance.
Landing 4 70%s in a row is around a 24% chance.

Accoring to numbers, lets say you want to play it safe and try scrolling all of your SCGs with 70%s for the first 4 slots since a 24% would mean at least one of them would get to 13 att 1 slot since you have 5 gloves. Then try landing a 60% on the last slot. If you're pretty lucky, you could get 2 13 att 1 slot SCGs, and mathematically, at least 1 of the 2 60%s will work leaving you with a 15 att and 13 att SCG. But realistically, that probably won't happen.

Remember, even if the numbers work out, your worst case would still be one 13 att SCG and you'd be left with like a 1B+ loss. The real worst case though, is of course, all the SCGs blow up. You're always taking a risk.

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ALSO, a while ago someone posted a basilmarket link that had a pretty detailed scrolling guide in the sense that it just had a bunch of different probability scenarious worked out. Anyone have the link??

 

I only have one rule for scrolling: Only scroll ur own gear if it is hard to find out... gambling is not safe. In this server it's not necesary to invest, you can leech, keeping NX everyday, etc. But if u insist on investing, you can try merching.

 

Found it myself. If you're looking for scrolling math, this is the shit right here.
http://www.basilmarket.com/General-Scrolling-Reference-Wiki-2915

Note that there are some typos. When he says what's the % of getting 1 30% and 2 70%s in a row to work, there should be a 0.3 instead of 3 in the calculation.
Also I can't check the formula he used for calculating the "Multiple Events Not in Succession" section, but it gives some weird results if you put in a large number for n, like 1000. I'm not saying it's wrong though.

Also, here's an excerpt from Raddy and Detox's Merchant Guide.
http://royals.ms/forum/threads/the-merchant-enchiridion.7664/

If you want to come up with a mathematical scrolling strategy, and apply it, here's what you should have.

• Understanding of the discrete math used in the calculations
• Funds for the items and scrolls
• A large collection of price check data (who knows, it might be more profitable in the long run in some cases to scroll several items with 1-2 slots left rather than a few items all the way)

If I had the time, funds and data to devote myself to this stuff in game I'd totally be all over it. But I don't right now. Hopefully others can find use it.

 

Scrolling is simply luck. I've passed 3 consecutive 30% in a row, but I once failed TEN 30% in a row.

You also must remember that even if you fail 9 30% scrolls in a row, the probability of you passing the next one is not magically above 30%, it is still 30%.

 

I understand what you're saying.

Technically, the probabilities are not simply luck like a lot of people say. But realistically, in the game, it does seem like it since most can't afford to obtain a large enough sample (or simply not enough items exist). In your case you happened to be particularly lucky and unlucky. 3 30% passes in a row being 2.7% and 9 30% failures in a row being 4%. Unlikely, but possible. However if someone had 3000 30% scrolls, 1000 items and tried to land 3 30%s in a row 1000 times, they would very likely end up with 27 items where the 3 scrolls worked in a row.

I used 50 10% scrolls on 50 items before, and exactly 5 got scrolled. Some times 2 in 4 worked. Another time 1 didn't work for like 15 tries. So the numbers work themselves out eventually.
When the number of events is low, the results will be skewed since you might be on a failure streak.
The less events you perform, the higher the fluctuation in your outcome.

If you want to make big money, you'll have to make big gambles and roll with the punches if you take big losses.
Like buying 4+ att clean PGCs and chaosing them. If you want the scroll to give you +3~5 att, then the chance is just 0.6*0.2727 = 16.4%
Most people can't afford to create a large number of events for that, so you pretty much just have to get lucky.

If you want to play it safe, you'll have to buy lots of cheaper items and lots of cheaper scrolls.

 

Dude, don’t have to gamble, I'm glad I was able to get rid of this shit recently. I just hate betting or online casino games. I just don’t understand how my friends make money on this. It seems to me that this is just black magic. I lost over $ 3,000 because I trusted them and started playing. I will never play these stupid games again. I also wanted to play online poker platform and win, but fortune is not on my side ((