Hi guys, I was wondering if anyone had a scrolling calculator or could teach me the formula or a method of figuring out the expected value of scrolling. Like if there's a way to figure out a cumulative probability in the end to get to the example below: 2 x 30% 4 x 70% 1 fail what is the % chance of this and how to calculate it is what i'm trying to understand / learn! Not sure if this is something that's really complex or if its simple math but i can't seem to figure it out, thanks!
Found some stuff online but some of the equations seem super complex. Not sure if maybe i need to make a spreadsheet or something to create this
Unless I'm wrong, isn't it: 0.30 x 0.30 x 0.70 x 0.70 x 0.70 x 0.70 x 0.15 x 100% = 0.32 % chance Can someone confirm? There's a reason I do medical research and not math
2 30% + 5 70% to pass: (0.3^2)*(0.7^5)*100 = 1.51% 2 30% + 4 70% to pass: (0.3^2)*(0.7^4)*100 = 2.1% 2 30% + 4 70% + last slot (70%) boom: (0.3^2)*(0.7^4)*(0.15)*100 = 0.32% That's what I think, I may be wrong.
Yes, since TS asked 2 30% 4 70% and 1 failure. So I gave the exact result, assuming 2 30% passed, 4 70% passed consecutively. And the probability of pass 6 60% is 6*0.6*100 = 4.66% and not 0.0467% as what you have mentioned.
Hmm strange, i thought it may be a simple calc just because it seems so many people scroll to make "profit" but I'm surprised how many people do this probably without knowing their probability of success or what amount they need to break even, etc. I think what Buccanner said makes sense that its really complex because you're not aiming to get 5 x 70% in a row out of 6 scrolls, you just want 5/6 scrolls to work no matter what the order is so i think that changes the way its calculated. In this case maybe i will change my question to something less numbers based: Are there certain rules or tips when scrolling that will yield the highest return? For example, its only worth scrolling when you can use 30% scrolls on the first slot? Or is it maybe better to always scroll the first slot with 10% scrolls on clean items until it works? And then after you get a 10%/30% to work, do you have to really go for another 30% in order for it to be worth something decent in the end, or is it ok to do 60%/70% at that point? Obviously there's a lot of factors that go into this as well...like cost of clean equips and cost of the scroll you're talking about, but I just thought someone with a bit more experience in making money off this may shed some light on their general strategy when going about it lol
All you guys are trying to work with probability. But the probability in computer may act differently. In real world, the past event is affecting the future event. In computer, it may trying to offset the event to get the target probability. For example, if you get 15 fails on 10% scroll, the. The success on 16th scroll may be higher since the computer are trying to get 10% on success. Or I might be wrong. It depends on how the computer are build.
In the real world, yes it is independent. But in the computer? not so sure. When you tell the computer to generate a random number, it may not like the real world. The computer is made by human and not toss a coin every it generates a random number.
Someone told me yesterday to scroll bath robes for 30% int apparently its a good way to make mesos becuase if you get the first slot to work with a 30% its worth like 50M. Haven't checked FM for this but i think 50M is a bit high for just one slot working...but he said there's stuff like that to get rich off of
Damn that makes a lot more sense now because i just went to the scrolling thread and looked at the 60% overall for int and it says 29M so i didn't understand how anyone could view that as a profitable way based on probability. Maybe he meant 10%, on top of that, the cost of the robe isn't even factored into it so that would make it even worse.
Hi. I've created the type of calculator you were looking for. https://royals.ms/forum/threads/scroll-risk-calculator.134860/
