ok so... ive been playing maplestory for quite a while now and i was starting to wonder how i could increase my chances of scrolling. lets say i have 10 10% gfa's if i fail one, would the next one have a higher chance of working? if you fail 10% scrolls consecutively, do the chances of failing decrease or stay the same? one tactic i use when i scroll is, i use useless scrolls on useless equips first and if i fail enough, i use the initial scroll right away and surprisingly, it actually worked for me most of the time. of course this may all be a coincidence. i would like to hear what you think and what tactics you use when you scroll IGN:Theif/Warroir (Heroes~)
All scrolls are independent events, so failing or passing one scroll won't have any affect on the outcome of the next scroll used. (altho every1 know when u jump an scroll at th same time chances of succeeding go up liek 50%)
Does anyone claiming that all scrolls are independent have proof of this? Not saying it's not true, but has it ever been confirmed in the code that it's not pseudorandom?
They are all independent, but after failing some scrolls, you can only hope lady luck will turn your way!
Multiple Events in Succession To find out your chances of a certain grouping of events in a row, use the following method. (probability)^n or (prob.)(prob.)(prob.), etc. 10% Scroll 1 consecutive success: 0.1, 10% 2 consecutive success: 0.01, 1% 3 consecutive success: 0.001, 0.1% 4 consecutive success: 0.0001, 0.01% 5 consecutive success: 0.00001, 0.001% 6 consecutive success: 0.000001, 0.0001% 7 consecutive success: 0.0000001, 0.00001% 8 consecutive success: 0.00000001, 0.000001% 9 consecutive success: 0.000000001, 0.0000001% 10 consecutive success: 0.0000000001, 0.00000001% (Yikes!) Everything above is quoted from the link humandeath posted. wouldn't this apply for consecutive failure too? note that this person said "To find out your chances of a certain grouping of events in a row" what i think is, if you view each and every scroll as an individual event, the possibilities will always be the same(and it makes 140% sense), however, if you calculate the probability of a group of events, you can see that the chances of succeeding (in this case) drop (and i believe it should technically work the other way) and still make sense (i hope). failing 100 10% gfa's is likely but very very improbable. whereas failing one 10% gfa happens all the time [not literally tho(you don't say)]. /shrug. i might not be getting the point or this is all a conspiracy!
In your original post, it seems like you were using "dummy scrolling" to increase the probability of a scroll working. Taken from the same thread: Many people claim to have had astounding luck with this method - so lucky that 'dummy scrolling' must've been a way for them to increase their scrolling probabilities, right? Wrong! Dummy Scrolling is using cheap scrolls on cheap items with the intention of failing them in order to raise the probability of the following scroll on the real item. Obviously, the maker of this strategy phenomenum forgot that scroll outcomes are INDEPENDENT events, thus the outcome of one individual scroll does not affect the outcome of another. This method is very similar to the Law of Averages that some people quote heartedly, though the Law of Averages actually does not exist and is false! Due to the "Law of Averages," if you toss 6 coins and they all end up heads, your next coin toss is probably going to be a tails - wrong! The toss is still 50% because the events are independent. Likewise, you cannot use dummy scrolling and a combination of the Law of Averages to assume that you can raise your probabilities.
Yes, that is true Lulla but consecutive tosses will eventually lead to lesser and lesser probabilities to have one outcome. BUT if you look at it INDIVIDUALLY its the same every time. Both theories seem to be true to me, hence the paradox.
Dummy scrolling does nothing. As everyone said, scrolling is an independent event. Each time you use a scroll, you have an x% chance of it succeeding (or failing). Regardless of one scroll or 18 scrolls, the chance of each individual scroll succeeding or failing will not change. What will change is your chance of overall successes or failures.
Gambler's fallacy. Failing 9 10% scrolls in a row doesn't ensure the 10th one will hit. However, the chance of failing 10 10% scrolls in a row where all events are independent is 34.9%. Thus, if that 10th one also fails, you fall into that 35% of people who would fail 10 in a row. The other 65% of people who try this would have passed at least one somewhere along that route. Your chance of passing that last scroll is not 35%. It's still 10%. The same could be said about any scroll in the entire chain; assume you're putting 10% scrolls on 10 different equips. Each individual scroll will only ever pass at a 10% rate. The chances that all of those equips end up with a wasted slot is 34.9%. The chances that at least one lands a 10% scroll is 65.1%. That's a decent chance; you'd need to use 10 scrolls to have one pass at the rate of a 60% scroll. If you cut it back to five, you're down to 41%. If you increase it to 20, you're up to 87.8%. But at the end of the day, these are all statistical probabilities; if you did them an infinite number of times, they'd work out. Whether or not they'll work out when you scroll your Dragon Shiner Cross is all up to lady luck.
