DO NOT MAKE PUECHASE DECISION BASED ON THE DATA USED IN THIS THREAD. PRICE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE DATA HERE ARE FOR DEMONSTRATION ONLY. I guess quite a few ppl have figured out these techniques, and the market is pretty close to perfect competition. So why not reveal them so that everyone has handy tools scrolling and dertermining price. I will introduce cost calculation of weapon and gloves scrolling, chaos scrolling, and the estimating of market price. You are welcome to introduce techniques you use. Or throw me other scrolling techniques you are trying to find out. To be continued in 9 hours. Maybe this thread should be moved to Guides section. ---------- 1. Cost of Scrolling Weapons 1.1 General Technique Take Craven for example. Price of fully scrolled Craven here is out-dated. DO NOT MAKE PUECHASE DECISION BASED ON THE STATISTICS USED IN THIS THREAD. PRICE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Spoiler: why use out-dated data Because the current price is much lower than the old source price, I am using the old data to demonstrate how scrolling Craven was profitable. The scrolling of 56 att 6 slot Craven was one of my favorite when it was still profitable. Same technique can be used on other weapons. The cost to make a 56 att 6 slot is (price of 51 + price of 10% claw - NPC price of )/10% = (2+0.5-0.45)/10% = 20.5 (m) Spoiler: why "-NPC price of [IMG]https://royals.ms/library/images/item/01472053.png[/IMG]" If the 10% fails, the could still be sold to NPC, and the price is 450k. This term should be - NPC price of *90% to be exact. The cost to make a 61 att 5 slot is (cost of 56/6 + price of 30% claw - price/cost of 56/5 *35%)/30% = (20.5+22-6.8*35%)/30% = 133.7 (m) Spoiler: why "- price/cost of 56/5 [IMG]https://royals.ms/library/images/item/01472053.png[/IMG]*35%/30%" 1. If the 30% fails, the 56/5 could still be scrolled, and it has some value. Here I take it as 1/3 the cost of making a 56 att 6 slot . 2. 35%/30%: on average every one successfully scrolled comes with 35%/30% failed but not boomed. Do this over and over again untill it hits some number. For example, my target is 77 att . The cost of 66 att 4 slot: (cost of 61/5 + price of 30% claw - price/cost of 61/4 *35%)/30% = (133.7+22-44.6*35%)/30% = 467 (m) The cost of 71 att 3 slot: (cost of 66/4 + price of 30% claw - price/cost of 66/3 *35%)/30% = (467+22-155.7*35%)/30% = 1448.7 (m) To make it clear, the formula is: In this calculation, the cost to make the failed one is taken as 1/3 of the cost before scrolling: P(failed equip) = P(equip)/3 The remains value should be determined case by case. Right now I just take it as 1/3 for convenience. Scroll 71 att 3 slot with 3x event scroll. The cost to make a 77 att would be: 1448.7 + 3*70 = 1658.7 (m) In the old source, the price of 77 att was 2.1b. Thus the profit 441m. Recently, a 77 was sold for 1.7b. So the accounting profit is 41.3m. 1.2 Choice of Path In the case, I chose to scroll with event scroll after 30% scrolls, and I chose to scroll 56/6 , which already scrolled with 10%. Explanation for these are: 1.2.1 Take 71 att 3 slot for example, it's cost is 1448m. If we land it with 60%, then: 60% of the time, we save a event scroll, which is 70m at the moment (or 200m which is it's highest price in history); 40% of the time, we lose 1448 - 482 = 966m The expectation of gaining when we land it with 60% is 60%*70 + 40%*( -966 ) = -344.4m (or -266.4m if event claw scroll = 200m). Thus we lose 300m if we land it with 60%. We lose 313m (or 222m) if we land it with 70%. Consequently, landing 60% or 70% is a bad idea. 1.2.2 I found scrolling pre-landed with 10% most profitable. Take 54 for example. 54 att is about 40m. If we land 64 att 5 slot with 5 event scrolls, 74 att = 796 + 5*70 = 1146m, 74 used to be 1100m, and now is 800m, so there is no profit at all. If we land 69 att 4 slot with 4 event scrolls, 77 att = 2417 + 4*70 = 2697m, which is 1b higher than the path in 1.1. 2. Market Price Estimation This technique is useful when, for example, you are trying to find out the price of 124 nisrock but you only know the price of 120, 125, and 127 nisrock. This section is placed before section 3 because section 3 uses the technique in this section. DO NOT MAKE PUECHASE DECISION BASED ON THE DATA USED IN THIS THREAD. PRICE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE DATA HERE ARE FOR DEMONSTRATION ONLY. There are four steps: (1) Researching, (2) Plotting, (3) Fitting, (4) Reading or Calculating. (1) Researching For example, we use owl in game, or search on google by typing "nisrock site:royals.ms" and press Enter. We found the market price of nisrock to be: (2) Plotting We do this in Excel or Numbers: We plot the points: ===> Take appropriate min, max, and interval of the coordinate: ==> For x axis , and y axis We get (3) Fitting Then we do fitting by double clicking any blue dot. Do some fitting with binomial, or exponential, whichever fits best. We get: (4) Reading or Calculating We can either read the number from the figure or calculation. 1. Reading from the Figure: P(124) = 830m 2. Calculating: We do this by getting the equation/function of the plot, and calculate by letting x = 120, 121, ..., 128. Use "show equation/function", we find that, This function is equivalent to We found that P(124) = 827m. Two methods give similar results. 3. Cost of Chaos Scrolling You may have noticed after reading the 1st section that to determine the cost of scrolling a intermediate equipment or a finished equipment, we are making these equal: Here Price(x) refers to the price, value, or cost to make of an equipment, whichever fits in best. It's easy to determine the Price(equip with n slot) when scrolling 30% on weapons because we have event scrolls. Same goes for gloves chaosing because for inferior gloves (if finished with event scrolls 16 to 19 att) and endgame gloves (if finished with 10%+ws 21 to 26 att), the value of unfinished gloves is easy to determine, which will be discussed in 2.1. However, for capes and shoes, figuring out the value of unfinished equipments is much harder, which will be discussed in 2.2. 2.1 Chaosing BWG, and the Sale of a 26 BWG - who is the biggest winner? I am not using the current price of BWG. DO NOT MAKE PUECHASE DECISION BASED ON THE DATA USED IN THIS THREAD. PRICE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE DATA HERE ARE FOR DEMONSTRATION ONLY. BWG = 200m, Chaos = 500m, White Scroll = 500m, 30% Gloves for att Cost of 3 att 6 slot : (200+10)/0.3 = 700 (m) (6 slot is worthless or can be ignored.) Now we will chaos the BWG. We come to a point using WS might be preferred. But after some calculation, no, not yet. Spoiler: some calculation 3 att 5 slot BWG worth almost nothing. When we use a chaos, there is 40% chance of failing. If the devaluation of the equipment losing a slot is higher than the cost to use a WS, then it's a good choice to use WS. The devaluation of 3 att 6 slot BWG becoming 3 att 5 slot BWG: 700m. The cost of using a CS along with a WS: Tools/formula: Spoiler: Tools 1. : Suppose we scroll 100 equips with 30%. Before scrolling: 100 equips, 100 30% scrolls. After scrolling: 30 landed, 35 failed (and 35 boomed). 100*P(equip) + 100*P(30%) = 30*P(landed) + 35*P(failed) => 30*P(landed) = 100*P(equip) + 100*P(30%) - 35*P(failed) = [P(equip) +P(30%) -35%*P(failed)]/1% => P(landed) = [P(equip) +P(30%) -35%*P(failed)]/30% 2. Whether or not to use a white scroll with a chaos: Path A: we scroll 10 equips with chaos 60% and white scroll. Before scrolling: 10 equips, 10 chaos, 10 ws. After scrolling: 6 landed, 4 (intact) equips. (1) 10*P(equip) + 10*P(cs) + 10*P(ws) = 6*P(A, landed) + 4*P(equip) Path B: we scroll 10 equips with chaos 60% and no white scroll. Before scrolling: 10 equips, 10 chaos. After scrolling: 6 landed, 4 failed. (2) 10*P(equip) + 10*P(cs) = 6*P(B, landed) + 4*P(failed) Minus (1) with (2), we get 10*P(ws) = [6*P(A, landed) - 6*P(B, landed)] + [4*P(equip) - 4*P(failed)] We find (3) 6*[P(A, landed) - P(B, landed)] = 10*P(ws) - 4*[P(equip) - P(failed)] To find out the condition that the cost to land an equip with path A is lower, we let: 6*[P(A, landed) - P(B, landed)] < 0 Thus (3) becomes, 10*P(ws) - 4*[P(equip) - P(failed)] <0 => P(equip) - P(failed) > 2.5*P(ws), which means if the devaluation of an equip losing a slot without being landed is greater than 2.5 times ws price, then it's worth landing the chaos with a ws. My other thread(s): MageStory https://royals.ms/forum/threads/magestory.125959/ Here I introduce ways of making meso and conclude why mages/bishop are the best jobs for meso making. To be continued.
It'll be interesting to see how this thread develops and to hear more about your valuations. There are just so many known and unknown, rational and irrational factors that takes too much effort to consider.
I’ll only be introducing techniques. Gloves pricing won’t be included in this thread, as it’s just my personal judgement, and is not a pure technical issue.
Update: 1. section 1 finished; 2. section 2 finished; 3. tools landing a 30%, or landing a chaos with or without ws.
I dont understand section 2.1? You say that its not worth to use ws on that bwg but the devaluation of that slot cost more If use cs and ws = 1b and it fails, you still keep the bwg and only lose 1b If use cs only = 500m and it fails, your bwg is worthless and you lose 500m + 700m = 1.2b
