To Gacha or to sell AP resets -- which one has higher expected value?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Slon, Sep 14, 2021.

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How do you turn NX points into mesos?

  1. Sell Gachapon items

    48 vote(s)
    68.6%
  2. Sell AP resets

    15 vote(s)
    21.4%
  3. Other methods

    3 vote(s)
    4.3%
  4. I just spend them on my characters

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. Slon
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    Slon Member

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    Hi all! I main a bishop that is now lvl 126. My goal is to 1-hit skele and join HT party play. After that I think I'll go for attacker class.
    To achieve that goal, I will need to gear up, level up, get Genesis 30, Maple Warrior 20 and go blood wash. A lot of mesos for sure.
    However, I think I will not be able to sell leech for long hours each day, maybe 2 hours at most and therefore a big part of my mesos comes from NX points.

    Usually I sell AP resets for mesos but the price for them is gradually lowering so not as profitable as before.
    I seldom go to gachapons. If I do, I go to Mushroom Shrine because it at least gives out 30%/70% scrolls.
    But after like 210 tickets of gacha (180,000 NX) I get no Chaos Scrolls and a small number of popular 30% scrolls. The value is much less than 180,000 NX cost of AP resets.
    I'm curious about which has higher expected value, Gacha or AP resets? What should I do if I want to make more mesos?
     
  2. lmy1993
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    lmy1993 Active Member

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    For 93k nx, you get 30 APR equivalent to 300 - 315 m in view of 10-10.5m / APR.

    For 90k nx, you get 105 sets of gacha. WS/CS typically cost 500-510m.

    Based on my current exposure to gacha, I got 5 WS/CS equivalent to 2.5B out of 16 sets of gacha, equivalent to 480k nx, equivalent to a 154.8 APR, equivalent to 1.5-1.6B.

    This is not including some other good stuff I get from, eg good Stonetooth, some int scrolls etc.

    I would say gacha definitely give a better outcome but of course, you are not extremely bad luck.


    I ought to believe the statistic in long run. I’m sorry for your case where you get nothing in 180k. But if I were in your shoes where I couldn’t get anything, I would definitely gacha for another 180k and I should expect some nice rewards.
    However, if you are looking for a steady flow of income, APR is definitely the way and I don’t foresee if there is any further drop in market price of APR.

    good luck my friend!

    edit: I don’t run 16 sets at once but these are my total exposure to gacha if that matters. I ran 3 sets / 4 sets / 5 sets at once.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2021
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  3. NANI1
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    Gacha and selling aprs are around the same expected outcome. I feel like im seeing white scrolls more common than chaos in gacha smegas. This other guy did 1000 tickets at shrine and got 0 cs. Its more safe sell aprs but this game is mostly about gambling and taking chances at getting rich even though the odds are against you.
     
  4. Bacon
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    That’s a tough call. A more stable income is AP resets. A potentially higher income if you gamble is gatcha in either shrine or nlc. I personally gatch mainly in shrine and get mad everytime haha. I’ve gone 200k without a cs and sometimes have done 8k and gotten a cs.
     
  5. HikariNoPuri
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    HikariNoPuri Donator

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    Gacha has higher expected value, the odds are definitely in your favor, but CS make up around 50% if not more of your total income from shrine gacha (I've done several 1mil runs and noted every single drop, calculated expected value, etc.)
     
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  6. Ayane
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    Ayane Well-Known Member

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    Gach is trash I got like 1.7b or so out of like 900k nx
     
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  7. RazumDar
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    Gach (at some locations, at least) is definitely higher payout than selling APRs, but it's also more involved.
    I'm not sure what the exact chance for a CS/WS is but I think its pretty close to 0.75%, based on my results and those of a few other people kind enough to catalogue and share their results. If anyone knows the exact number please let me know.
    Anyways, assuming you spend 120,000 NX to get 140 tickets you would expect 1.05 CS/WS per 120,000 NX. The same 120k NX spent on APRs would get you about 406,000,000 if you're selling APRs @ 10.5 each. So, even discounting everything from the Gach except the CS/WS, it's still more profitable. When you add in the various decent scrolls and good wands and swords and whatever else, it becomes substantially more profitable to Gach, but you need to put in the time to sell all the stuff of course. This is only for the NLC and Shrine Gach though, I'm not sure about other gach locations that don't have CS/WS. They all have their jackpot items but I think the drop rates are lower on things like Lupin erasers, BWG, and especially low on godly dragon equips.
     
  8. Zofran
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    Zofran Well-Known Member

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    About being not sure about whether to just sell AP resets or go for a gacha, is the same as not being sure about whether to gamble or not to gamble.
    Gacha is like a casino, simple as that.
    If you decide to go to gacha, you can end up really rich and happy. or sad and miserable.
    you can get 2 CS with just 10 tickets, and you can get 0 CS with 100 tickets. its just a matter of luck, those lucky people who get 3 of them in a row is just luck, they didnt do something special. they were just lucky.
    why do i tell you that? because sometimes you see them getting them and think, "wow, maybe i can too".
    but the truth is, nothing guarantees you will actually get it.
    the safe path is to sell Ap's or the tickets for mesos. thats a low income of course, but a guaranteed one, unlike going for a gacha round.
     
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  9. bloo9ine
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    bloo9ine Donator

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    Thank you Zofran, very cool!
     
  10. Zofran
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    Zofran Well-Known Member

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    i sure did. in fact, i had a 105 gacha run at the shrine. 3 packs of 35, i saved up NX just for that.
    and i thought maybe atleast 1 cs would make it worth it, like, i'd be satisfied with that. but not even 1!
    and i did that after seeing a few guys getting 3 CS in a row. i thought maybe the chances got higher to get it, lol.
    but that has nothing to do with that, its just luck.
    and i learned that the hard way, unfortunately.
    to conclude things up, you have to learn to be happy with bad results.
     
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