Are you trying to say you should craft lancers because you could get lucky and get a good one, or are you trying to say that its sustainable and more profitable for your time to craft them? talking of probabilities you should know the odds are incredibly low, and your odds don't change between each craft. It can't be mass crafted like kanzirs because of the crimson woods, which if everyone were trying to farm those woods it would be even less worth your time, because of lack of spawns, no real variety of farming locations, and unreasonable drop chance. The CA is the best bow in the game, but bm is also one of the least mained jobs. BF used for NL which are one of the most popular jobs.
That was half my point, My other half is that the ingredients' prices that are common to the BF and the CA will probably inflate at some point soon due to the high price of the CA, while the BF's price is always under the price of the MTK. Then again, I might be wrong you can close this thread please I don't want to respond here anymore.