What is the probability of getting 4 consecutive bad pirate hat？

I think you are not getting OP’s point. They are requesting to get a average item which should appear like 80% of the time. A godly ifia ring straight away puts your chances to 5% or less. Thus its not a fair comparison.

I get what both of you mean LOL. Don’t get upset over mushroom game.

 

I'm personally am not upset.

I got OP's point, he just doesn't get mine.

I didn't compare his item to a godly ifia ring, i just gave the item as an example.

everything here is RNG based, i'm surprised he didn't understand that the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth time i've explained it to him.

 

I'll try to avoid getting into the heat of the argument about the RNG.

So let me just ask - why even stress over that lame pirate hat? It obviously has worse stats than a zhelm which costs 50m and that's nothing compared to the time you spent on the ppqs. This pirate hat is not BiS. It doesn't have 10 slots. Why then?

As a side note, I've used 3 chaos scrolls and all of them failed. It's alot of money and made me quit twice. Don't cry over this hat cuz you're gonna get it much worse very soon anyways haha!!

Another side note: if we only check the dex/luk - let's assume you can get 12 to 16 and that it's evenly distributed, which it is when not taking godly stats into account. The stats you got were higher on average than 13, which basically means you got it only slightly worse than the average outcome for 4 pirate hats.

Edit: let's try to answer your question literally: assume the stats have 20% for each of the five numbers 12-16. You want a normal and up hat which means 3 of the 5 outcomes on 2 different stats. So 60% times 2, that's 36% of getting the stats you want on the hat. With my math, you have 16-17% of not seeing a hat that suits you in 4 hats received. That's low but obviously it could happen to almost 1 of 5 ppl. AND YOU ACTUALLY DID GET A 14/14.

 

I need Luk stats, as high as possible. However, in this server, we don't have a general helmet Luk scroll. The only helmet Luk scroll is the special scroll for pirate head.
You may consider the helmet Dex scroll is also available for thief. But my thief is not a dexless one and already adds too many Dex stats. I need LUK.

 

If you’re high level, then buy a auf helmet to scroll with helmet luk

 

Thanks for calculating. But obviously, it's not evenly distributed. So the stats+14 could be easier to occur than+12~13 or +15~16.

And about the stats compared with Zakum helmet. If I get a common pirate hat, which is 14 dex and 14 Luk, and I scroll 4/7 special scrolls (60% +3 stats) on that, I will get a 14 dex and 26 Luk pirate hat.
For Zakum hat, if I'm lucky enough to get a common one, which is a 15 dex and 15 luk, and I scroll 6/10 helmet dex 60% on it, I will get a 27 Dex and 15 Luk Zakum helmet. 2 stats higher than pirate hat, is that?

But you need to consider that, my thief adds too many dex already, I need to use a lot of APRs to wash my redundant Dex to Luk. I'm just a new player here and I cannot afford so many APRs, even cannot afford the Zakum service.

 

The helmet luk scrolls do not exist in this server.

 

It’s called Scroll for Auf Haven Circlet for LUK 60%

 

Thanks. I found that helmet in database. I am searching how to get the hat and scrolls.

 

The auf Helmet service costs as much as Zakum service. It's a little tough for me right now. And consider the chance I can survive the boss fight, and risk of badly scrolling the helmet, it's totally not accessible.

 

Then I recommend you to scroll the other 13/14 luk helms you have and go on, you’re wasting too much time going for a mid game helmet that you’re losing out on other game time and mesos making time in game. I also recommend you to start running APQ for apple to earn mesos if 60m sounds tough right now (instead of farming PPQ).
I know it’s not on topic to your title but it’s really not worth that much time investment for this hat.

 

If you have too much dex then just stop adding pts to dex and start going only for luk. You need 140 dex for an RC weapon at level 100 or at the latest level 120 and the Zak helm will let you add more luk. That's how it's done here, and Zak helm has better stats than the pirate helm and is easier and cheaper considering the time it takes to get the pirate hat.

If you already have so much dex that you cannot find an efficient way to use a dex scrolled Helm, you should probably restart the char as the aprs are gonna cost you a ton...

If you don't feel like remaking you don't have to at all, but your post makes me think you like to min max a little bit at least.

Edit: either way I'd recommend you read the nl guide available on the forum for ap allocation, equipment progression and leveling.

 

Thanks. That is helpful advice.

 

Thank you. I'll check the guide.

 

of course there's a formula, these are simple binomial random variables. you need to specify the result you want