Lets figure out the droprate of Chaos elixir (+20 hp)!

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Hey guys, so, I've been wondering what's the chance to get the chaos elixir from the hp questline.
Today i got one after my 5th turn in for the squid quest, but i saw that people got it at different turn ins and with different quest sets, so I think its safe to assume its random.
Now that it's been almost a week of people turning in the quest, I'm sure if we'll all share how often we'll get it, we can have a pretty good guess.
So, please do share your ratios of runs where you got chaos elixirs vs tonic of creation so we'll have a better guess at how common this item is

EDIT:

After @Becca pointed out to me that the first day didn't give the chaos elixirs approriately, I will assume for all the ones who already posted that they turned the quest in the first day, and ignore 1 tunic of creation from each.
so from now on:

When posting the ratio, please dismiss the reward you got on the 25/9!
(aka the day of the update)​

I'll try and keep this ratio up to date for every new post i see on this thread:

Chaos Elixir +20HP : Tunic of creation +10HP

15:24
Odds of getting Chaos Elixir: 38.5%~​

 

I think I did the quest 4 times so far. I got one 20-HP potion and the rest was 10-HP potions.

 

4 time

2 - 10 hp
2 - 20 hp

 

6 Times
4 - 10 hp
2 - 20 hp

 

6 times:
+ 3 x 10 HP
+ 3 x 20 HP

Spoiler: Detailed Log

• 25/09/2020 10
• 26/09/2020 20
• 27/09/2020 20
• 28/09/2020 20
• 29/09/2020 10
• 30/09/2020 10

 

1:5 for me

 

1:2 for me in 4 quests

 

I was wondering if it depends on the quest that you having. for exp, if you get the quest in ulu, because all the mobs close to each other you will get +10.
but a quest that you need to travel to ludi and maybe to aqua will give +20.

 

From what I've seen so far, all the quests people mentioned gave them 20 hp also gave 10 hp for others. So either only some quests are capable of giving 20 hp, but at a certain chance, or all of them can give both 10 and 20.
While there's a chance some might have different odds, i personally believe that won't really matter, as we don't get to choose the quest we do anyways, that means the end result would be the same [unless you decide to skip a day].

 

As stated in the OP, I deducted 1 tunic from all the posts above this one.
From now on I'll return to count normally as long as you guys will say you deducted the first day [or never quested on that day].
tsk tsk tsk, why did you have to make it so complicated @Matt ?

P.S. If i were to not ignore these extras. the ratio would be 20:11 --> 36.6%, instead of the 13:11 we got now. guess time will tell if this reduction was necessary.

 

I’ve gotten +20 HP from the gold monk and squid sets, +10 HP for other four sets.

I feel like I hear the same rewards from others with the same quest, are you sure it’s random? For example, everyone I talked to that turned in the gold monk quest (after day 1?) has gotten chaos elixir, and you mentioned yourself that the squid set gives chaos elixir as well.

Assuming the same 6 sets rotate every six days with the same rewards, the rate of tonic:chaos should be 2:1.

 

26 tonic
27 tonic
28 tonic
29 chaos (Squid)
30 chaos (Gold monk)

Update:
1: tonic
2: tonic
So far it seems that only Squids and Monks quest gives 20hp. This might be interesting for me since doing the 20hp quest is worthier to spend my time and just forfeit the quest the next day for some luck. (Still have to travel to magatia tho, why @Matt )

 

Hmm, maybe the ones who uploaded pictures of them getting tunic on squid have done it on day 1. Ill keep an eye and see if it really is 100% chaos for these two

The thing that makes me think you might be right is that the reward doesn't have a random reward box. It just shows either the tunic or the chaos, which means that for that quest, that reward was set. At least thats how it works in normal quests in ms.

 

I got tonic from squids but it was indeed day 1, might've been impossible get get chaos then.

1: tonic (squid)
2: tonic
3: tonic
4: chaos (gold monk)
5: tonic
6: tonic

 

I got the same quest as before today so I think there are 6 quests in total

NLC (10hp)
Ulu (10hp)
Leafre+ToT+Magatia (10hp)
Dragon forest+green mush (10hp)
Squid (20hp)
World tour (20hp)
------------------------
- that means 2/6 give the 20hp potion
- meaning you get 13.3hp on average / quest

If each quest takes about 40min on average, that's 20hp/h doing this quest.
This is about 2.5 APR worth of hp for most attacker classes (sans warrior/bucc)
---> 40mil / h

For bucc and warriors this is obviously even less effective compared to traditional washing.

 

Hmm, while it might be unlikely, there's a chance that the quests are not given equally, so i think there's still value in recording the rates on the quests. But if it starts settling around 33.3% then i guess it will be for the most part confirmed

 

Not counting first day
I am 2/5 chaos on 1 character and 1/2 on another
1 chaos each from thanatos quest and 1 from gold monk

 

I remember seeing Kai say in a post somewhere (I cant seem to find it now though) a day or 2 after the patch that it was dependent on the difficulty of the quest, rather than random

so far I've gotten +20 from squids twice and gold monks once, and +10 for the others (once each), so 3/7

 

I do not think this quest is meant to compete with traditional washing. Quite clearly it is implemented to address the problem of poorly washed 1st characters that either dont have access to washing anymore (lv200) or the washing would be horribly inefficient (APRing base stats to int at a high level). For these cases the new system works very well despite being less efficient than traditional washing from level 1. People are quite fond of these 1st characters and have sought of a way to fix them instead of abandoning them late game.

The root of this problem is people lacking knowledge when 1st starting out on the server and I absolutely think there should be some sort of a tutorial for hp washing. However having the early game non-washing experience is vital for player retention, so front-loading all that information in maple island is also (in my opinion) a bad idea. We need to have a subtle way to give this information to new players, such as tooltips when hovering over hp/mp/int or adding a page or two about it to the beginner guide.

In any case, the new system seems well balanced to me (less than half the efficiency of normal washing from level 1, but still relevant) and I tip my hat to the staff for adressing this.

 

I got a 10HP potion from squid quest though ...

My 20 HP pot comes from gold monks, so maybe this one is true?

Current ratio

1x20 : 4x10